Well, like Jeff Jones said in the post-game (thanks to the AU Examiner for sending me the audio of that), the first half and the beginning of the second half were just about the best basketball that we've played all year. We passed well, took care of the ball, scored from inside and outside, played solid defense. Just did everything right. In light of this (and the fact that I'd have to be more ticky tack than the ref who threw Hoop Time out of a game recently) I'm not doing a BAD or UGLY section for tonight. I'm just going to point out the GOOD and some other notes about today. I could get clever and do the GOOD, the GREAT, and the EXCELLENT, but I think you guys pretty much get the picture. So here we go!
THE GOOD
Stephen Lumpkins - Yes I know Vlad scored more points than Lumpkins, but Lumpkins had the better game. He was dominant down low today. Jared Mintz put up 19 when last we met them. This afternoon? Just 4. And one rebound. That's largely as a result of Lumpkins's defense in the post. How did he do on the other end? Ridiculously well. 11-13 for a career high 24 points. He also put up 12 rebounds, which gave him his second straight double-double and seventh of the season. Lump was playing in front of his family today (his mom had a sign saying California moms Bring Sunshine in honor of CBS), and apparently they also bring dominant performances from their sons.
Vlad "the Impaler" Moldoveanu - Vlad had another fantastic game. He reacted well to the double teams he received today and notched 6 assists and 9 rebounds to go with his 26 points. He did a lot of damage from the line where he was 11-13, but was respectable from long range too and shot 3-5.
The collective defense of Wilson, Luptak, Munoz, McCormack, and Hendra - Really kept the Lafayette guards pretty quiet tonight. They only shot 6-19 from deep, and that's largely because of the pressure we kept on the perimeter. Excellent.
Nick Hendra - Hendra didn't have an astounding game statistically, but he looked like he was back to his old form tonight. He showed a lot of hustle tonight (at one point he jumped out of bounds to try to save a ball, ended up running almost to the bleachers, then jumped back in over the pipe and drape, sprinted back down the court, and ended up getting a rebound on the other end). He went for a baseline dunk today and missed it but drew the foul, though he was upset he didn't make the dunk, you could just see some of his old game is returning. He's fired up, and it couldn't happen at a better time.
Simon McCormack - The past two games Simon has been a master of both the backdoor cut and the garbage bucket. He was the third leading scorer tonight and got a lot of his points from moving well without the ball and cleaning up the boards. Like I mentioned above, he also played great defense and, as JJ said in the press conference "hustled his rear end off."
Matt Wilson - Matt had a point, a rebound, and an assist in his Senior Day appearance. He recorded his first career start. Today was indicative of what Wilson has been since he joined the team: a roleplayer who can come in to fill in good minutes. I'll try to transcribe it later, but JJ also talked highly of the kind of person Matt is and said he will go on to do important things and really impact people's lives. Thanks for your leadership and guidance of a young team this year, Matt.
Jeff Jones clearing the bench - With 90 seconds left, chants of "Free Mike Bersch" started coming out of Section 114. These quickly grew to "Clear the Bench!" JJ decided to indulge the crowd and put in Holton, Bersch, Jolivette, Fisher, and Borucki. I was happy to see this because they haven't had much chance to play. It was the perfect time to do it too, up 18 as we were. They were excited to get out there, and even if it was garbage minutes, I'm sure they appreciated being out there.
Finally, one last story from today. I tweeted about this, but I wanted to put it here. You knew today was a good game when JJ called Luptak over and started yelling at him about something he'd done. We were up 15-16 at this point. As I watched Luptak getting yelled at, he started grinning. Then he was full on smiling. SMILING in Coach's face while getting yelled at. Finally he just patted JJ on the arm and went to the bench. I thought for sure JJ was going to keep killing him. Nope, he just put his arms up and kind of grinned too. Awesome.
So here are the first round PL match-ups:
1 Lehigh
8 Army
4 American
5 Navy
3 Lafayette
6 Colgate
2 Bucknell
7 Holy Cross
What do we think about these first round matchups?
Pro deo et patria and GO EAGLES!
Finally, a complete game in conference play. Great result, tremendous team effort AND a great game from Vlad AND Lumpkins. Vlad was the complete player in this game. Lots of assists in this game, with quite a few of them being impressive. We really made it a mission to get the ball inside.
ReplyDeleteNow we have Navy to contend with. It feels so good to have this game at home.
When I saw Jordan Jermichael Borucki enter the game tonight, it was like a dream come true. I never thought I'd see #15 take off those warmups and actually set foot on the court. It was beautiful.
ReplyDeleteI'd also like to commend Mr. Jeff Holton for his 1 pt. performance.
great win last night. Bill, while I love your board here and you have a great sounding board. This is my last post. Everyone has great insight, but now that I figured out who is who, who LB is, who NJJ is etc.. I think I want to go back to just enjoying AU basketball like I have in the past. My wife and I travel to every game we possibly can and coming in here and just either seeing people beat each other up, beat the team up or throw great insight out there, I found I would rather just enjoy AU Basketball. I played high school basketball through 10th grade and just love the game. I truly hope you keep this great site going and I hope all of you continue to give each other great info, I am just going to go back and enjoy the team and the game I fell in love with... Best wishes to all of you.. Tony
ReplyDeleteTony, thanks for your contributions here in recent weeks. You're always welcome to come back and chime in! All the best to you and your wife. GO EAGLES!
ReplyDeleteThe growth of Munoz and Luptak at the point in the last month is incredible (though Steve did try a ridiculous three-quarter court pass to Riley in transition in the first half, and was quickly--and correctly--yanked by JJ). Danny is much more assertive now in looking for his shot, and Steve has become much more settled with the ball. Credit to them. I have killed Nick on this blog this season, and he has come on of late; yesterday, he was terrific at both ends of the floor. When he hits a three or two early in the game, he's a completely different player. Credit to him.
ReplyDeleteNow, I hope LB and the others can see what an amazing coaching job JJ and his staff have done this season. The three that Vlad hit at the end of the first half wasn't lucky; that was a beautifully designed play, with Lump setting a back pick to free up Danny and Vlad coming off baseline action to float to the corner. (It helped that Lafayette was late rotating to him.)
Do you now see that there may be a little method to JJ's madness? Vlad was even getting in the passing lanes yesterday; he caused at least two steals that I recall. Our perimeter defense was outstanding. Lump dominated Mintz inside--that's the guy I thought we'd see all season.
Once again, we're playing our best basketball at the end of the season, as we have just about every season under JJ. Since the season-low loss at Army, we're 6-4 (and, as far as I'm concerned, we're 7-3, 'cause I still can't believe we blew that Colgate game). We have a rotation that fits our talent. The coaches have tweaked the offense and gotten more scoring out of Simon and Luptak. We have a home game in the tournament, which is crazy, and we finished .500 in league play. Does JJ finally get some credit from the naysayers?
As far as the first round, the best chance for an upset (it's not an "upset" if a five beats a four, and I won't be shocked if Navy wins Wednesday; we're two very evenly matched teams) is Colgate over Lafayette. I can't figure Lafayette out at all. They've beaten Bucknell, they smoked Lehigh a couple of weeks ago, but they've looked terrible against us and they've lost at home already this year to 'Gate. Roemer and Jonson are a solid one-two punch.
It's amazing what a few 3 point baskets and a few forced turnovers can do to a team. Knowing the team can have games like this is what makes the bad losses so maddening. Everything that this blog has pointed to as troubling (teams shutting down Vlad, Lumpkins getting outplayed, lack of aggression, lack of production from the role players, etc.) was seemingly taken care of.
ReplyDeleteThe game against Navy should be fun. The only thing that scares me is that Chris Harris is the type of player that can take over and single-handedly win a game. Simon and Hendra are going to have their hands full on defense. As for the other games, I'm going to go out on a limb and say HC upsets Bucknell. Don't know why, just a hunch.
For 'Gate, don't forget Yaw Gyawu, he, Roemer, and Jonson are all very solid.
ReplyDelete"Does JJ finally get some credit from the naysayers?"
Yes, yes he does. A lot of credit from me for the game he coached yesterday. The backdoor cuts he designed for Simon really add a whole new dimension down low. The inbound plays we saw against Navy and yesterday were great also.
NJJ - While Navy and us are pretty evenly matched (and I agree a 5 beating a 4 does not an upset make), I do have to say that the home court advantage is pretty big for us. If this game was happening at Alumni Hall, I'd be a lot more worried. Both of the last two seasons we've swept the Mids, with a fairly solid game at home but an incredibly close, down to the wire victory in Annapolis (last season it was a single point, this season 2OT). I'm confident Bender will be full and that sort of atmosphere will help push us to victory. Call me endlessly optimistic, it's alright, I am. Now as for the second round, well, let's just get there first.
ReplyDeleteI am also tickled pink at HC's record this year. We outdid them, and we were expected to finish pretty low in the bottom half of the League. They were expected to pretty overwhelmingly finish first. Sure, they got a new coach, and I would NOT want to see what this year would have looked like for us without JJ, but it's still a victory in my mind. I don't see them overcoming Bucknell, but anything can happen, (and I think knocking out the Bison would be better for us, anyway). Now 'Gate over Lafayette, I'd put money on it. Amazed at that win over Navy last night. What a great night.
AU played perhaps its best game of the season vs. the Leopards yesterday. Jones and his players did an excellent job on all fronts. What has been nice is the amount of intensity that the players are bringing to the court on offense and defense. They have turned it up a notch the past 2 games. Of particular note is the play of McCormick. He has stepped up as the key go to guy to stop the best G/F's on the opposition. Over the last few games he also has showed a desire to go to the hole- something AU desperately needed. Also especially nice was to see the non-players finally get some mop up time. This team has met my goal of a top 4 finish and so i am satisfied, in spite of the overall mediocrity of the PL this season.
ReplyDeleteAs promised on a previous post here are some pertinent stats on the freshmen Guards on the 5 (non service academy) other PL teams-
Lehigh: B.J. Mc Collum - .463 FG%, .434 3 PT% 33 Steals
Bucknell: Byron Johnson .325 FG% .321 3 PT% 15 Steals
Lafayette:Tony Johnson .430 FG% .133 3 PT% 27 Steals
American:Dan Munoz .317 FG% .283 3 PT% 14 Steals
Holy Cross: Dee Goens .408 FG% .333 3 PT% 24 Steals
Colgate Mitch Rolls .374 FG% .485 3Pt% 19 Steals
If one looks at Soph Guards then the it gets worse. Most likely in the future we will not be able to look to Munoz to contribute much as a scorer. AU will have to compensate (as they are doing now) with other scoring options. Jolivette has shown better offensive skills, but until he can convince JJ that he is deserving then that is a mute issue. It will be interesting to see how each of these kids progress on the offensive end of the court.
PG stats without assist/to ratio, or assists totals or turnovers totals. LB shows his firm grasp on the game of basketball again.
ReplyDeleteKeep and eye on sophomore Jordan Sugars who is a better all around player than Chris Harris for Navy. 6'3 averaging 8 rebounds a game, nearly 16 ppg and better shooting percentage in both fg and 3pt %. While Chris Harris is a great player he is not the overall player that Sugars is and is going to be the next two years. Sugars had a phenomenal game against AU at Navy the other night. AU needs to contain both these men to have success and pound the ball inside using our height advantage.
ReplyDeleteanon- i tried to use stats that did not reflect other factors that would be team oriented. Assists? how about when the teammate cannot convert ? no assist there wise man. if i used turnovers it might depend on playing time, and our guy would finish at the bottom. steals reflect one on one defense. shooting % alone shows how good a shooter one is. when you stop being a "homer" then you can look at where our guy is regardless of his teammates. let's hope he improves more than his rival guards do, since he is running behind right now statistically.
ReplyDeleteHC had a good away game against Lehigh with RJ Evans coming back from an injury. The game was even until the last few minutes. They should be able to make some noise in the tournamnet.
ReplyDeleteSugars and Harris are difficult to stop. If Navy is able to play aggressive defense without fouling, it could be a very tough game. I have long known that if AU plays the way they are capable of playing, success in the PL tournament is possible this year.
Steals aren't solely a individual defensive effort. A lot of steals are the result of stepping into passing lanes or a bad pass due to defensive pressure put on by another player.
ReplyDeleteThere is no perfect stat to determine the quality of guards. But assists and turnovers need to be part of the equation. If you want to account for Danny's lack of playing time, then compare assists and turnovers per 40 minutes so that everyone's on an equal plane.
Also wanted to point out that Vlad got an honorable mention over at The Mid-Majority today: http://www.midmajority.com/2010/02/the-hoops-national-february-28.php
I think Lumpkins personally had the better game, but cool nonetheless.
NAFINDC, no question Sugars is a key along with Harris. He had a couple of huge buckets last week. But Harris has gone for 30 or more five times this year, and anyone that can do that can win a tournament game for his team. Nick and Simon have to be ready and active.
ReplyDeleteLB, you never fail to disappoint. But steals do not "reflect one-on-one defense," nor are turnover totals dependent on playing time. A guard who digs down to double a big man can't get the steal if his teammate doesn't provide solid low-post defense. The player who deflects a pass into the paint that his tr eammate grabs doesn't get credit for the steal, even though he caused it.
As for turnovers, Blake--who, as we all know, has barely played in two months--is still fifth on the team in turnovers. Playing time is irrelevant. That's why assist-turnover ratio is an accurate measure of how productive a guard is with the basketball.
As for your contention that assists don't matter, it simply makes no sense. None at all. If a miss by a teammate makes assists irrelevant, why does field goal percentage matter for anyone? The point guard has the ball in his hands more than any other player; of course assists matter. Assists are certainly not the only metric to look at a guard's effectiveness, but they are relevant. Can't help but notice you didn't list those, or assist-turnover. If you had, you'd see this:
Name Assists A/T Rat
Goens, HC 23 0.77
Johnson, Bucknell 36 1.29
Johnson, Lafayette 41 1.32
McCollum, Lehigh 68 1.17
MUNOZ, AU 69 1.30
Rolls, Colgate 99 1.5
Whaaaaaaaa?
You mean Danny, who pales in comparison to the other freshmen in the PL according to you, is actually second in assists among freshman point guards? And is third in assist-turnover atio? If I didn't know any better, I'd think you were cherry-picking the stats to make a specious argument.
I think a fairer statement would be that McCollum is head and shoulders above the other freshmen when it comes to scoring/shooting, and Rolls is probably the best across the board, and Danny is just as good as the others when you look at ALL THE STATISTICS, not just the ones that make him look bad.
Putting McCollum in the equation is neither sensible nor fair. McCollum is a freak. He's my pick for PoY, Rookie of the Year, he's easily 1st team all-PL. The guy is a gamechanger and will be for four years. If Danny can end up being as good as Mitch Rolls (of whom much has been praised this year) I'll be satisfied. Danny is not going to be McCollum. There are few in the league who could hope to be like McCollum.
ReplyDeleteI thought the 16-4 Colgate run may sniff the Bad section here, but it's probably good that it got left off. AU took a bathroom break and went back to business to close the game.
ReplyDeleteHow far can McCollum really take them in his first season though? Every rookie hits the wall at some point.
Bobby, are you referring to Lafayette's run in the second half, or something that happened in the Colgate-Navy game (since both are significant to us)?
ReplyDeleteAlso, I'm loving the Examiner's coverage of AU Basketball!
Not Juan Jones your analysis is always dead on. It's obvious you have a strong basketball background. Your correct that assist/turnover ratio is an important stat. I would be curious to know the assist/turnover ratio for all the point guards in only conference play. This would show how they performed against identical competition.
ReplyDeleteBelieve it or not i agree with you about where Dan Munoz falls in the talent listing of freshman guards. If you want to cite the Assist # then i think you should list per minute of play. Some of those other low assist #'s for the rival PG's are low because they do not always play the point like Dan does.
ReplyDeleteMunoz is okay, and hopefully he will get better. But offensively he is limited right now, and he struggles to score. So his defender drops down to double whenever possible. What this team needs is scoring from the guards, and that is why we are 7-7, and have an overall losing record. Like a light hitting, defensive second baseman in baseball, one can only afford a light scoring point guard, if all the other positions can solid offense. The good news is that it looks like Troy can provide the scoring to make up for Munoz's offensive limitations.
Comparing stats of players on different teams is irrelevant. You can't take into account what is being asked of the players.
ReplyDeleteDerrick Mercer his freshman year played a good, conservative game. He didn't try to penetrate much. He was very cautious with the entry pass. He learned the ropes slowly. He was able to break out his junior year, and then he could really pour it on his senior year.
Not every player takes the same path. The PL season this year provided its own unusual challenges. The teams were very weak, but they employed effective strategies against us. We were a team with as many weaknesses to exploit as strengths to overcome. Our even record in the PL is an accurate indicator of how the season went.
Now let's hope our performance in the past two games are a good indicator of where we are now.
@ Joshua_Kaplan
ReplyDeleteYeah, I was looking up Colgate stats at the time so I wasn't thinking straight. Trying to get my predictions ready for round 1.
Thanks for the props!
The season must be going well. Lord Baltimore has stopped using all caps. Looking forward to Wednesday.
ReplyDeleteSaw the awards. Also disappointed Lump didn't make second team, but I think we can point right at the game @Cross, when Keister kicked his butt, as the deciding factor. Should be great motivation for Lump the next couple of years.
ReplyDeleteOne of the Anonymi wondered about our freshmen point guard discussion as it pertains to conference play, not just overall, as a better measuring stick for comparison between them. Good point, with the caveats that, a) as many have mentioned, different teams ask different things of their point guards, and b), as LB mentioned, fairness does dictate that we make some distinction between starters and reserves. You ask, I deliver. In alphabetical order:
PL ROOKIE POINT GUARDS, CONFERENCE PLAY
Goens, HC
15 assists
11 turnovers
0.94 A/T
176 minutes (12.6/game)
Bryson Johnson, Bucknell
18 assists
11 turnovers
1.64 A/T
370 minutes (26.4/game)
Tony Johnson, Lafayette
16 assists
13 turnovers
1.23 A/T
194 minutes (17.6/game)
C.J. McCollum, Lehigh
44 assists
32 turnovers
1.38 A/T
485 minutes (34.6/game)
DANNY MUNOZ, AU
41 assists
22 turnovers
1.86 A/T
358 minutes (25.6/game)
Mitch Rolls, Colgate
55 assists
35 turnovers
1.57 A/T
392 minutes (28/game)
As I said before, Whaaaaaaaa?
Little Danny Munoz has the best in-conference assist turnover ratio of all the freshmen point guards in the PL? And by a lot? And is third of the six in overall assists? And does it in fewer minutes per game than McCollum, Rolls and Bryson Johnson?
Now, let's be fair. Of the six, Danny, McCollum and Rolls have started almost all the conference games for their teams (Blake started the first conference game vs. Lehigh). Goens subs for Beinert at HC. Bryson Johnson has started 11 games for Bucknell, splitting most of the starts with Joe Willman (I don't know if injuries or matchups were the reason) but has gotten more time as the season has gone on. Tony Johnson comes off the bench for Lafayette as a rotation player.
Now, all stats can be twisted to mean whatever you want them to mean. But I think, again, that a fair assessment of the PL freshmen point guards would go something like this: McCollum is a beast and the best by a mile; Rolls is good, and solid all-around, and Danny measures up quite well with the others. Though he scores less, he's much better with the ball than almost all of them and is much more efficient in the time he's on the court. I say that's a damn good start for a freshman. Now, let's pray that the CAA/A10/C-USA schools have McCollum on their radar, and raid accordingly.
Thanks for the research NJJ. I think it's fair to say that Danny has grown by leaps and bounds this year.
ReplyDeleteThe only point I disagree with you on is that (if I read your post correctly) I hope McCollum stays in the league. I think I read something that he has the best offensive output since Adonal Foyle in the mid-1990s, and Foyle went onto the NBA. Players like McCollum only make the league better as a whole and hopefully attract more players like him. I mean don't we want the league to get back to where it was 4-5 years ago when Bucknell and Holy Cross had people talking about the PL as a 2-bid league in the NCAA tournament?
SH: I'll speak for myself: no! I want AU dominating as often and for as long as possible! BTW, add my congrats to the women's team. A great season, and hopefully we'll have a title game at Bender!
ReplyDeleteCongrats to JJ for putting in the freshmen in garbage time. That 90 seconds will sure help their development. Riley goes for 3 points AND 1 REBOUND in 17 minutes, throughout the season Nick has gone on numerous cold, cold spells but Blake and Bersch remained bolted on the bench for whatever reason. The other PL freshman were able to develop because they were allowed to develop. Why was Matt Wilson on a losing team getting significant minutes with very, very limited skills over Bersch, Nick would go cold for games in a row yet Bersch remained on the bench. Devlopment time was lost for him as well as most of the other freshmen that can not be regained while others played for stretches worse than they were. I thought a freshman would get more leeway than upper classmen who are supposed to be through the inconsistency of many turnovers, shooting slumps and bad plays that seemed to plague everyone but only get the chosen time on the pines.
ReplyDeleteRecruiting interest is usually based on conference affiliation. The stronger the conference is, the better AU will be. I want McCollum staying put.
ReplyDeleteAnyway, watching a lousy AU team beat up on even worse PL teams is not my idea of fun.
Steve, mon frere, I have to disagree. Recruiting interest is based on school affiliation/talent level. A blue-chipper isn't choosing between playing in the ACC or the Big East or the Pac-10; he's choosing between Duke, Carolina, Georgetown and UCLA--or, more likely, between Coach K, Roy Williams, JTIII and Ben Howland. Conversely, a kid at our level isn't choosing between playing in the PL and, say, the Sun Belt or Big South; he's picking a coach and/or style he likes and feels comfortable with.
ReplyDeleteAnd winning trumps all. So the more we win, the better players we're going to get.
Last year's team dominated the PL, and it was hardly "lousy." I don't mind having talented players on other teams in the conference, but I will never get tired of going 13-1 and having a real chance to win an NCAA game, either.
Can we all please stop the "Why isn't bersch / blake playing?" comments. Clearly they aren't in the rotation and haven't been for some time. Jones has a short rotation. He plays who he plays. Apparently it works for him. Is this team great? No. Did they just finish 7-7 in the league and in 4th place? Yes. Would they be better right now if Bersch / Blake were playing? Who knows. Presumably Jones does. That's what his job is - to decide who plays and who will give the team their best chance to win. If I'm not mistaken, in 9 years in the Patriot League, Jones' teams have never had a losing record in conference play and have never finished lower than 4th. Pretty sure also that no other team in the league can say this and that every other team in the league has finished below .500 and in the bottom half mutliple times. By the way a quick look at AU's stats shows that Bersch shot 29% from 3 this year and that if you divide individual turnovers by minutes played, Jolivette's number is significantly higher than anyone else's. You may not like how Jones plays guys, but apparently it works for the program over the long haul
ReplyDelete"You may not like how Jones plays guys, but apparently it works for the program over the long haul."
ReplyDeleteYes, that's true, but what does it really matter if people keep calling for Bersch and Blake? If JJ isn't going to play them, they're wasting their breath as much as you are wasting yours by telling them to stop calling for Blake and Bersch.
People here are fans. Fans have opinions. Sometimes those opinions are irrational (anyone here a Redskins fan, for example?).
I disagree with this sentiment of "let's just sit and fold our hands and agree about everything." Let people debate and call for what they want, what's the harm in it? It's not like JJ is looking at these comments for advice on his rotation.
If Coach Jones was so consistently correct he would not have gotten his butt fired at UVa. Let's continue questioning his decisions ! If he was 100% right at UVa he would be living in Charlottesville now.
ReplyDeleteComment is a little out of line. You are way to emotional concerning this bball program. There are people you can speak to for help to try and solve these deep rooted issues you have.
ReplyDelete