I don't even know what to say. If I spent six hours putting pen to paper I couldn't fully express the depth of my disappointment in the team's performance tonight or disdain for the officiating. I'm not going to take that six hours because I feel like the team already wasted my Thursday night with the game they just played. If I had to sum up how this game went from the AU perspective, I would say it was like this (Photo courtesy of The Eagle):
It was really that terrible. If you haven't read the tweets from tonight, I encourage you to do so. Additionally, here's the box score from tonight in case you need some material to look at forlornly while you cry yourself to sleep in the fetal position tonight. Here's the post-game video and recap also.
THE GOOD
Nick Hendra - Well, whatever Hendra did it clearly wasn't terrible since he was in the game almost immediately tonight (though he didn't start, Joe Hill did in his place). I guess Nick spent a good long time thinking about what he'd done because he had a career night, scoring 19 points 6-9 from the field, 5-7 from long range, and 2-3 from the line. He also had 5 rebounds and 4 assits (though he did turn the ball over 4 times and he fouled out). He was visibly drained and frustrated by the end of the game; he did everything he possibly could have tonight, but he just didn't get the support he needed (more on that soon).
Danny Munoz - Danny also recorded a career high scoring total tonight with 15 points (3-9 from the field, 2-4 from deep, 7-8 from the line). I've got to say though, it was a pretty quiet 15 points. He also got 2 rebounds and dished 2 assists against only 1 turnover. A pretty okay game all the way around for Danny. He didn't make too many mistakes, but he also didn't manage the floor particularly well. For a freshman PG, this was an excellent game. He's getting better and better.
Stephen Lumpkins - This is admittedly a pretty iffy appearance in the good column. Yes Lumpkins had 11 points (4-7 from the field, 3-5 from the line) and 8 rebounds, but he played terrible defense tonight. Mike Muscala, Bucknell's FRESHMAN center, and Patrick Behan combined for 27 points. Behan's been around the block a couple of times, but to get burned like that by a freshman? For shame. You got stumped by a young chump, Lump.
Team rebounds - We outrebounded them 36-32, which is good, but again, it's slim pickings for the good column tonight.
THE BAD
Where to start? Where to start? Hmm. Let's start here.
Shooting of all flavors - 18-51 from the field (35%), 7-19 from 3 (37%), 16-23 from the line (70%). We had no rhythm at all on the offensive end of the court. Couldn't get anything going. Which forced us to throw up some really crappy shots. We didn't do well in the paint (and didn't take full advantage of getting to the line), and we didn't finish particularly well. We should've driven into the lane more to try to get to the line more because we sure as hell weren't going to do it from the outside.
Defense - This was something I touched on in the preview. They're a balanced team, they've got 5-6 guys they can get scoring from. They had four guys in double figures (and one with 8). We didn't do well guarding jump shots (we just let them have jump shots, and they knocked them down. All night. They killed us with 12-14' jumpers.) We didn't play Behan and Muscala tightly inside, and like I said they put up almost 30 combined points on us.
AU's roleplayers - This includes Simon McCormack, Matthew Wilson, Joe Hill, Steve Luptak, and Riley Grafft. Here's the combined line: 88 minutes, 4-19 from the field, 12 points. We really needed to have some help tonight, and we really didn't get it. Maybe it's not fair to add Riley in with this mix (he was 3-7 with 6 points and 7 rebounds). Alright, fine, Riley you're lumped in here, but you're actually passable tonight. Oh wait, no, here's why you're not: YOU TOOK ANOTHER THREE. STOP DOING THAT. Seriously, if you don't take another 3 for the rest of the season, I'll give you $20. You've shown you can put it on the floor, make a move inside, and jam it. SO STOP HANGING OUT BEHIND THE ARC.
THE UGLY
Two very clear candidates tonight, and it has to start with -
Vlad "the Impaled" Moldoveanu - Everyone is entitled to an off game. I get that. Vlad has been a godsend for us this year, and he's kept us in a lot of games we otherwise would've gotten blown out in. Tonight though was spectacularly bad. 1-7 from the field (0-3 from long range), for 2 points with 5 rebounds, an assist, and 3 turnovers. Now there were some mitigating circumstances. The first was that Vlad got double-teamed every time he touched the ball and he was able to neither fight through the double team nor find the open man that said double team created. The second was it looked like his shot was just generally off tonight. The third was that he was in foul trouble all night thanks to some truly spectacularly awful officiating (more on that in a minute) tonight. At one point Vlad was backing a man down in the post and VLAD got called for the foul because the defender was driving both elbows into his back. Jeff Jones was incredulous and rightfully so. Vlad ended with 4 fouls and only got 25 minutes of play. Looking at the score (73-59) if Vlad had had even half his normal production (10 points) AU is right back in this thing. But he got SHUT. DOWN. COMPLETELY. I mean, he was literally impaled by the Bucknell defense. Ugh. It also just came to my attention that today was Vlad's birthday. Not much like Mike Bersch's birthday game where he lit up Manhattan for 16. Sorry your birthday wasn't a good one, Vlad. You'll do better against Colgate.
Foul trouble for both teams/terrible officiating - There were 49 fouls called in this game (27 on AU), and it really impacted the outcome of the game. Vlad, Riley, Lump, and Hendra were all in foul trouble all game, as were many of the key players for Bucknell. I'm not really sure why the refs decided that breathing on someone was a foul tonight, but it seemed like every single ticky-tack handcheck was called, much to the dismay, and later, outright anger, of the AU coaching staff.
I did some digging because I wanted to see what the story was. It turns out, we see this ref pretty often. Mr. Rutecki, every game you call I want to tear my hair out. You're terrible. Tonight was especially bad though. Here were the other two refs: Louie Andrakakos and Jeff Nichols. Here's some stats. This officiating crew averages almost 37 fouls a game, with an average standard deviation of 6.8. So statistically 95% of the time, with this crew, you will have 43 fouls or less, give or take a foul. We basically had a game tonight that was almost two standard deviations above the mean. The percentages of time that should happen statistically is approximately 5% (technically 2.2%, but it wasn't two full standard deviations, so I added some more in there). Additionally, this crew averages a -1 home margin on fouls. Tonight's home margin? +5.
The bottom line is: this game is a statistical anomaly for this crew. A statistical anomaly that manifested itself as too many ticky-tack fouls and garbage calls. Let the boys play, refs.
And boys, when the refs do happen to be letting you play, DON'T PLAY LIKE TRASH.
After this game and the Lehigh game, I'm really beginning to think that we're on the downward trend again. That 3-game winning streak seems like a loooooooong time ago now and a much different team. Hopefully we can rebound against Colgate this weekend.
I welcome your comments, maybe they'll lift my spirits.
Pro deo et patria and GO EAGLES!
Good work on the officiating crew's stats- I was about to flip through the other PL team's forums to see if these guys have the same problems outside of Bender.
ReplyDeleteI cringe everytime I see Rutecki.
The hysterical thing is to watch JJ before and then during the game with Rutecki. Before the game they're laughing and talking like they were college frat bros and they're reminiscing about the keggers they used to have. Then once the game starts JJ is calling out Rutecki using words like "terrible" and "awful" and looking like he wants to run him through with a shiv. I guess JJ has to be nice to keep up appearances, but God the contrast is hysterical.
ReplyDeleteThis was the most out of sync I've seen AU this season. Teams are finally starting to figure out that all you have to do to beat us is stop Vlad and let us take copious amounts of jump shots/threes. That's it. We're completely one-dimensional on the offensive end and our defense seems to rely solely on energy, which we've obviously lacked recently.
ReplyDeleteI'm looking at our schedule the rest of the way and I honestly don't think we'll win more than two games. That'd put us at 9-21 (including the tourney) which would be the worst season for us since 2000.
The only optimism that I can muster is for next season. I feel like adding Brewer to the mix with Nick, Lump, Vlad, and a much improved Danny will take care of our predictability and make us much tougher to beat.
I think we actually played better in this game than against Lehigh.
ReplyDeleteI see one of our problems as that we get discouraged too easily. Lumpkins makes a great move, gets a super-easy shot, and then doesn't finish. it then takes us a while to go back to him.
And then when we get discouraged, we start taking 3s early in the posession. This is a recipe for disaster.
We missed a bunch of easy shots in this game. Shots that are almost 100% guaranteed to go in. Lumpkins, Vlad, Luptak, Grafft all from really close range. Warm-up drill type stuff. We then discard what worked for us.
I agree with the commentary by Fienstein. Too many 3s early in the possession. It started in the beginning of the game by Vlad. And it continued when we went away from plays that failed only because we couldn't finish.
I feel worse for Vlad that not only was it his birthday, but his Romanian buddy Gheorghe Mureşan (the former Washington Bullets player) came to watch him play tonight.
ReplyDeleteI consoled myself after the game by watching My Giant (you know, where Mureşan stars opposite Billy Crystal). Hopefully Vlad was able to console himself in a similar fashion.
I was really impressed with Danny tonight, some amazing plays and being able to make it happen on the court.
ReplyDeleteI am also really touched with the work that Jeff Jones is doing with promoting shoe donations. I think that they could have worked on this a bit more and really built it up. We did start to cheer for Jeff Jones but was told to stop embarrassing the pep band.
Steve, I disagree about us playing better than against Lehigh. Lehigh is a good team that we just got flat out outplayed by. Bucknell is a team that is about as talented as we are that spanked us in every aspect of the game. The offense was out of sync all game. Guys weren't expecting passes almost ever it seemed (i.e. when Riley took a ball to the face in the lane on a give and go). The defense wasn't much better as we decided not to defend jump shots and didn't adjust to the terrible reffing by cutting back on the handchecks and going straight up on defense in the paint.
ReplyDeleteWe did not deserve to win last night. We didn't play well at all, and to call us out of sync would be spot on.
ReplyDeleteTwo addendums to the Good, Bad, and Ugly -
1) Kudos to the Pep Band for playing the Eastern Motors' theme song where "your job is your credit." Are they a sponsor now?
2) Great Student Turnout - I mean, it was a good crowd on hand.
Also, another alum shared with me that the head of officiating for the League was on the sidelines last night. I hope he took great notes.
Agreed on all 3 Viddy. I forgot the Eastern Motors theme song. Over 600 cars and trucks, SUVs, are you listenin' man?
ReplyDeleteAwesome job by the students and Athletics for getting pizza again.
I hope the league official is embarrassed by what happened last night.
The Refs were calling equally both teams with cheap fouls. What i did not like about the game is that i felt we never played our game to force Bucknell to react to what we were doing. It was the opposite. Vlad got back in his early habit of committing stupid fouls. There was only one or two instances when he reacted quickly to the double team he faced as soon as the ball got in the paint. So what do we do ? Just keep on doing it. why did not JJ move Vlad to the top of the key? Maybe he had "cold feet" !
ReplyDeleteYou guys hardly ever seem to question the coaching decisions. Our players were outplayed and our coach out coached. For instance he took Lumpkin out of the game with 7 minutes to play with 4 fouls. Up until that time he was effective on the offensive end. He did not return once even though we were down about 10 with 5 minutes to play. Why? Why wasn't Vlad moved out to the top of the key ? He is a great threat there too. Every time down the court Vlad sets up in the low post and we try to force the ball into him. if its not there you do not keep on doing it over and over and over.
What is scary is that Bucknell had 3 freshman who contributed to their win- all contributing about 25 minutes per game. So the thoughts of somehow our new transfers next season all of a sudden making us a contender for first place again seem questionable after seeing Bucknell and Lehigh's first yr. players. We lost to Lehigh twice and Bucknell twice. it was not a fluke. This team is not good enough. Right now Simon McCormick has given us little. Joe Hill the same. Matthew Wilson the same. Steve Luptak the same. short of Wilson are these guys you can conceivably think will make us a better team next season? Have you seen improvement in their games this year? Are they as good as the Lehigh or Bucknell freshmen and sophmores? Not from the 4 games i have seen against these two foes.
Tell me again how we have not been out recruited by both Lehigh and Bucknell this year.
Lord Baltimore, you're right about me nothing questioning the coaches that often. I don't think it'll stun anyone if I say that I'm not exactly a scholar of the game. I write about what I see and what I perceive in the games. It's not a particularly...refined...perception very often. So if I don't criticize the coaching, it's because the coaching decisions don't play into how I view the game really. It's not really, complete, in the fullest sense of the game, but I never claimed to be ESPN either. That's why I appreciate the commenters here so much because you guys keep me honest on what I miss.
ReplyDeleteOh, I knew it wouldn't take you long, LB.
ReplyDeleteYou'll be surprised, LB, to know that I actually agree with you on JJ's use of Vlad against Bucknell. I do think it's on the coaches to figure out different ways to get him the ball, especially on the move. Vlad's a pretty good post player, but he's more effective coming off screens where he has a pass/shoot option. JJ has to do a better job of moving Vlad around, because it was too easy to find and double him the other night. He could be, I think, especially effective with Lump in high-low sets, as we've actually seen from Grafft when he's been on the floor with Lump at times this season.
However...
You jump to the conclusion that a) what we've seen out of Bucknell's and Lehigh's freshmen is what we're going to see the next three years, and b) what we're seeing out of our freshmen is what we're going to see the next three years.
Does the phrase "R.J. Evans" ring a bell?
Did anyone not think he was going to dominate the PL this year after his play as a freshman last year? Did Cross not get picked to win the PL in a walk? So why are they down near the bottom with us? Sure, Willard left, but Evans is (or, I thought he was) a can't miss, no matter who was coaching, and he has had, to be charitable, a mediocre sophomore season.
Here are the last 10 PL ROTYs:
Evans, HC (08-09)
Rob Keefer, Lehigh (07-08)
Marquis Hall, Lehigh (06-07)
Derrick Mercer, AU (05-06)
Pat Doherty, HC (04-05)
Andre Ingram, AU (03-04)
Kevin Bettencourt, Bucknell (02-03)
Nate Lufkin, HC (01-02)
Mark Linebaugh, Colgate (00-01)
Tim Szakto, HC (99-00)
Now, a reasonable person might argue that winning the PL ROTY award would be a precursor for great things, like the PL Player of the Year. So, how many of those 10 ROTYs went on to be PL Players of the Year?
Two.
Szatko (2001). Mercer (2009).
How many went on to be, say, the MVP of the PL tournament?
One. Szatko (2002).
So, please--what freshmen does not automatically translate to what happens to them as sophs, juniors and seniors. Sometimes, it does (as with Mercer), and sometimes it doesn't (is Keefer now a major part of Lehigh's team, or just a decent player feeding off of McCollum, Hall and Harrington?).
Here are some numbers of two recent players their freshman and sophomore seasons.
PLAYER ONE
FRESHMAN YEAR
2.0 ppg, 12.2 minutes/game, 1 start
SOPHOMORE YEAR
2.2 ppg, 10.2 minutes/game, 2 starts
PLAYER TWO
FRESHMAN YEAR
4.8 ppg, 9.7 minutes/game, 0 starts
SOPHOMORE YEAR
3.8 ppg, 10.9 minutes/game, 0 starts
Player one was Brian Gilmore.
Player two was Garrison Carr.
How'd they turn out?
Did they get better, as you insist few AU players have done under JJ? Isn't it likely that they took JJ's "banishment and punishment," as you like to say, to heart, and worked their butts off in the offseason to get better? And didn't we see marked improvement in each as juniors?
No, it was no fluke we lost to Lehigh twice. They are BETTER THAN US this season. It doesn't mean JJ is a lousy coach or that these are lousy recruits. It means we're young, and they're old. But I think Lump can be better, and I know Hendra can be better, and I think Munoz will get better, and I don't think we've seen the last of either Jolivette or Bersch. I still believe this can be the core of a PL contender, especially when you add Brewer and Hinkle and Wroblicky next season alongside Vlad.
You want to argue Bucknell, fine. I think we should have won the first game. We were lousy Thursday and that's also partly on JJ; you can't fall down 11-0 in a game that important. But I'm not giving up on these kids, and I'm damn sure not giving up on this coach.
Dag, NJJ throwing the research and the history out there. I HOPE that NJJ is right about this because if McCollumn and Knutson are going to be as good (or better) as they are now for the next 3 seasons, I'm going to be one sad Barechested Bender Bill.
ReplyDeleteAlso the last sentence in the previous comment reads like the beginning (or end) of an AU Eagles themed Braveheart speech. Flesh that out and make it an entry, wontcha?
At least seven of the ten PL ROY's went on to have very good PL careers. Also, Evans struggled early adapting to a new system but is now playing well again. He has a good shot to end up as 2nd team All-PL this year. Not bad for a soph. And it will be surprising if he doesn't make 1st team All-PL before he's done.
ReplyDeleteAlso, expecting ROY's to end up as POY's makes little sense for a number of reasons. One is that ROY is largely won due to opportunity, so the ROY always goes to either a player on a weak team who gets to play a lot of minutes or else a player on a good team who happens to step into a situation where he can start as a frosh.
Some recent POY's did not get to start as frosh - i.e. Charles Lee and Kevin Hamilton, who are two of the top PL players ever - so obviously they didn't get ROY. In another situation, however, both might have been ROY.
bravo men- you took the words out of my mouth. I think our kids work hard, and my hope would be that Simon, Joe, and Steve will get better- but i do not see them all of a sudden become accurate shooters, quicker to react, or better ball handlers. I remember Garrison Carr had a sophmore game with 20 points and then hugged the pine. I can see Munoz improving, that is hopeful. But i can see McCollum of Lehigh improving too- as will Johnson of Bucknell. They are freshmen.
ReplyDeleteLets hope our coach can adjust his strategy for the Colgate game so that we can beat a team that we should beat.
Anon--my point was that just because a kid gets off to a great start, it doesn't mean he continues to dominate. (And, no, I don't think second-team PL is all that great for a guy like Evans, who looked to be unstoppable at times last season.) And just because a kid struggles at the start, it doesn't mean he never gets better. I continue to hear the refrain that our kids will never get better, while everyone else's kids will. And I reject that premise, as evidenced by the growth of Gilmore, Carr, Nichols, etc. Maybe Knutson and McCollum will be four-year pains in the butt. But we don't seem to share the same faith in our recruits, or in our coaches' ability to get more out of them as the years go on--despite our success the last two seasons. I mean, Riley could barely dribble and walk last season, but he's gotten better. It also assumes that Lump, Vlad, Hendra and the other upperclassmen have no room for growth next season. I think they do.
ReplyDeleteNot all frosh who get off to fast starts continue to dominate . . . BUT most do. Look back at the All-rookie teams over the years and most were good players as juniors and seniors.
ReplyDeleteAs for Evans, in league play he is 7th in scoring (13.7 ppg), 11th in rebouding, 11th in assists, and 4th in offensive rebounding - despite playing less minutes than last year. Better numbers than last year. As he has learned the new system, he has been playing well. If he makes 2nd team All-PL, that will be a step up from last year.