This Eagle Means BusinessThe title of today's preview is 18-3. Can anyone forward a guess as to why I chose this arrangement of numbers? Well, for starters it's our all-time record against the Army Black Knights, whom we face at 7:30 PM on Wednesday in Bender Arena. Only one of those games (a loss) occurred before we joined the Patriot League, in 1963. That is also the only time Army has ever beaten us in Bender Arena. You can see why this blogger doesn't like losing to Army. See if my dreams will be crushed after the jump!
January 20th, 2010. Army beats the Eagles, 68-48 in West Point, scoring their third-ever win versus us and only their fourth 20+ point Patriot League win. Man, that game really got my goat. Without a doubt, that has been our worst game this season. And right here, right now, on this blog, I declare that we will not let the same thing happen again on our home court! Ok, well, I can't make those kind of promises, but I certainly have a good feeling about this.
Army has been on a downward slide ever since Patriot League Play started. Their out-of-conference schedule can be completely ignored, as Army is notorious for having the most cupcake schedule in the League. Which Patriot League team has a signature Big East win this season? Yes, I'm still using that, and will keep doing so until next season. Army sits in dead last in the League right now, occupying the only spot below us and Colgate. Yeah, I like these odds.
Of course, those numbers mean nothing. It's all about the game. And...Army just hasn't been in it recently. Seniors Josh Miller and Chris Walker, who absolutely lit us up in January, haven't had standout games since. Army's only real threat is Cleveland Richard, and while I admit that he might give us fits if we can't adjust to his adaptive game, he is no Vlad.
I do want to address something which recently came up in the comments of a recent most, which might I say have been a pleasure to read. Thanks to our readers for using this as the forum we intended to hash out your thoughts! Alright, enough boot licking on my part (pun intended), let's get to the facts. Right now there are 334 teams in Division I (barring 13 teams currently in a transition period). Of those 334, we are...334 in turnovers forced. Damn, we just can't get that ball, and that's keeping us from making the fast break points which would have EASILY turned the table in so many of our games this season. I know we can do it, I watched Hendra take it coast to coast not two games ago - but consistency has not been a strong suit of the team so far this season to say the least. So I'm going to add that to my little wishlist, but will it doom us versus Army? Don't think so.
One thing I do worry about, however, is Army's defense. Simply put, if they merely guard the post and let us shoot the three with reckless abandon (and we only hit about 30% of them, which has been about what we've been shooting the past few games), then we're worse off than Holy Cross' graduation rate. We really need to penetrate versus the Black Knights. Lumpkins and even Grafft can really stick it to the smaller Knights here, as I believe Josh Miller at 6'9" is the only (talented) Army player who can look them in the eye...and then look away in shame. Fortunately, Army's scoring offense is about as poor as...Holy Cross' graduation rate. I'm OK repeating disses when they concern the Crusaders, but that's our next game, so let's keep our heads in the present.
Frankly, to prevent another "Black Knight Debacle" we need to come out with all pistons firing. Lumpkins and Vlad are both coming off of double-double performances, and Hendra, Simon, and Grafft have had excellent games lately as well. Despite the three-game losing skid, I think we have momentum. Frankly, I think Colgate's game-tying shot at the buzzer of the first OT couldn't have possibly made it, and our loss was a product of Colgate's poor video. We won't have that problem in Bender, to be sure. Of course, I also hope to see the best sixth man in the Patriot League present as well, the Blue Crew especially as Army is always able to bring a lot of alumni because so many of them end up in DC. A good crowd will energize our guys, and while I usually try to be humble, it might be that subtle game-changer we'll need to turn our fortunes around.
If you all were doing the math early on, you surely realized that Army has never swept us during a season. I certainly don't think we intend to let that happen tomorrow. While you're in Bender, make sure to stay in your seat during halftime to enjoy the 5th Annual Presidential Shootout between AU President Dr. Cornelius Kerwin and AU Student Government President Andrew MacCracken. Kerwin currently holds a 5-0 record against the SG Execs, so I'm going to go ahead and give him the edge tomorrow as well. Either way, AU can't lose this matchup, so worst case scenario we'll still have won SOMETHING tomorrow.
I will end this preview the same way I began it, with some numbers. 19-3. That will, Clawed willing, be our record versus the Black Knights at about 9 PM tomorrow. For those of those who can't make it to Bender, I again recommend Patriot League All-Access. Otherwise, keep your eyes peeled for other online feeds that might pop up. Also, as always, we will be live-tweeting from Bender at @AUHoops.
Pro Deo Et Patria and GO EAGLES,
Josh
January 20th, 2010. Army beats the Eagles, 68-48 in West Point, scoring their third-ever win versus us and only their fourth 20+ point Patriot League win. Man, that game really got my goat. Without a doubt, that has been our worst game this season. And right here, right now, on this blog, I declare that we will not let the same thing happen again on our home court! Ok, well, I can't make those kind of promises, but I certainly have a good feeling about this.
Army has been on a downward slide ever since Patriot League Play started. Their out-of-conference schedule can be completely ignored, as Army is notorious for having the most cupcake schedule in the League. Which Patriot League team has a signature Big East win this season? Yes, I'm still using that, and will keep doing so until next season. Army sits in dead last in the League right now, occupying the only spot below us and Colgate. Yeah, I like these odds.
Of course, those numbers mean nothing. It's all about the game. And...Army just hasn't been in it recently. Seniors Josh Miller and Chris Walker, who absolutely lit us up in January, haven't had standout games since. Army's only real threat is Cleveland Richard, and while I admit that he might give us fits if we can't adjust to his adaptive game, he is no Vlad.
I do want to address something which recently came up in the comments of a recent most, which might I say have been a pleasure to read. Thanks to our readers for using this as the forum we intended to hash out your thoughts! Alright, enough boot licking on my part (pun intended), let's get to the facts. Right now there are 334 teams in Division I (barring 13 teams currently in a transition period). Of those 334, we are...334 in turnovers forced. Damn, we just can't get that ball, and that's keeping us from making the fast break points which would have EASILY turned the table in so many of our games this season. I know we can do it, I watched Hendra take it coast to coast not two games ago - but consistency has not been a strong suit of the team so far this season to say the least. So I'm going to add that to my little wishlist, but will it doom us versus Army? Don't think so.
One thing I do worry about, however, is Army's defense. Simply put, if they merely guard the post and let us shoot the three with reckless abandon (and we only hit about 30% of them, which has been about what we've been shooting the past few games), then we're worse off than Holy Cross' graduation rate. We really need to penetrate versus the Black Knights. Lumpkins and even Grafft can really stick it to the smaller Knights here, as I believe Josh Miller at 6'9" is the only (talented) Army player who can look them in the eye...and then look away in shame. Fortunately, Army's scoring offense is about as poor as...Holy Cross' graduation rate. I'm OK repeating disses when they concern the Crusaders, but that's our next game, so let's keep our heads in the present.
Frankly, to prevent another "Black Knight Debacle" we need to come out with all pistons firing. Lumpkins and Vlad are both coming off of double-double performances, and Hendra, Simon, and Grafft have had excellent games lately as well. Despite the three-game losing skid, I think we have momentum. Frankly, I think Colgate's game-tying shot at the buzzer of the first OT couldn't have possibly made it, and our loss was a product of Colgate's poor video. We won't have that problem in Bender, to be sure. Of course, I also hope to see the best sixth man in the Patriot League present as well, the Blue Crew especially as Army is always able to bring a lot of alumni because so many of them end up in DC. A good crowd will energize our guys, and while I usually try to be humble, it might be that subtle game-changer we'll need to turn our fortunes around.
If you all were doing the math early on, you surely realized that Army has never swept us during a season. I certainly don't think we intend to let that happen tomorrow. While you're in Bender, make sure to stay in your seat during halftime to enjoy the 5th Annual Presidential Shootout between AU President Dr. Cornelius Kerwin and AU Student Government President Andrew MacCracken. Kerwin currently holds a 5-0 record against the SG Execs, so I'm going to go ahead and give him the edge tomorrow as well. Either way, AU can't lose this matchup, so worst case scenario we'll still have won SOMETHING tomorrow.
I will end this preview the same way I began it, with some numbers. 19-3. That will, Clawed willing, be our record versus the Black Knights at about 9 PM tomorrow. For those of those who can't make it to Bender, I again recommend Patriot League All-Access. Otherwise, keep your eyes peeled for other online feeds that might pop up. Also, as always, we will be live-tweeting from Bender at @AUHoops.
Pro Deo Et Patria and GO EAGLES,
Josh
I think Josh Miller is a guard. They've been playing 6-9 Chris Walker and four guards. But that has been Army b-ball for quite a while now, even the team that almost beat us in the semi-final of the PL tournament.
ReplyDeleteI think we may be in for a disappointing night. See if I am correct.
ReplyDeleteI think this year has been the complete opposite of what everyone has been saying on here. I actually think this team has exceeded expectations and Jeff has done a great job coaching this team and hopefully setting AU up for a return to the top next season again.
1. This team had zero returning players that started a D1 game returning, ok I didn't research that to make sure it is correct, maybe Lump got a start or Nick once last year.
2. We had zero players who are considered an offensive threat entering the season until Vlad stepped into the line-up. First game out of the blocks against St. Francis and Riley scores double digits and looks capable of having a decent year.
3. We are 4-6 in league going into tonight and could very well be 6-4 blowing a late lead at Bucknell and losing in OT. We collapsed against Colgate blowing an 11 point lead in the second half and a 6 point lead with 40 seconds in OT, 5 point lead with 10 seconds and 2 point lead with .4 seconds left. Who in this blog would have thought we had a legit shot at 6-4 record in the league after the horrendous start? I am enjoying this season as much as I enjoyed last because it's fun watching it all come together over a period of time. I can't wait to go to Holy Cross and support them.
4. After having a nucleus that was built over four years and being senior heavy you have to start over. These guys were not going to get playing time last year regardless and some of these guys we recruited perhaps should not have been but being in a lower tier D1 program you don't get the cream of the crop. You get some great D2 players that may turn into decent D1 players. We lost one of the best 3 point shooters in the nation and as a team we were a great 3 point team. We don't have that now and our guards are D-2 quality guards, not quick, very few steals if any now. Munoz is starting to be much better at running the offense but is not a threat at all to score. Sure he got some mop up points and scored double digit but teams do not worry about him scoring at all. OH well, just weighing in. See you tonight, hopefully at Holy Cross or Navy and then finish out the regular season against Lafayette. Watch out tonight... it may be ugly.
Anonymous, I don't know if I would say this season or team has exceeded expectations (7 wins thus far?), but it's maybe been on par with what I expected.
ReplyDeleteThe thing that has been disappointing is how we have lost some of these games. Games where we just came out flat (UMBC, Bucknell the second time) or flat out gave game away (Bucknell the first time, St. Francis, UMES) and games where we didn't show up at all (Army).
That three game win streak in league play showed a TON of promise, and it was very encouraging, but it's been the occasional lapses in toughness and heart that have been frustrating.
With that said, I think we'll be in trouble for tonight. If they lock down Vlad, Hendra and Lumpkins or (gasp) someone else will have to step up. Maybe Luptak can have another fluke of an 18 point game.
7 wins with a possible two others with a team with virtually no record together entering the year, no experience...... and we were in the hunt for the league lead if we have those other two wins.... that far exceeds my expectation for this team. Maybe I don't set the bar as high as some for this team but I think I am being very realistic. Any way BB,, great sounding board on here...
ReplyDeleteone more comment to follow up... without VLAD this team wins zero league games,,, NONE, ZIP, ZILCH, NADA... anyone think differently?
ReplyDeleteOh, let me clarify what I said. I am very happy with how we've done in conference play. To be in the hunt up until two games ago is impressive to me and DOES exceed my expectations, by quite a bit actually.
ReplyDeleteMy disappointment comes, DePaul aside, in our play during the OOC schedule. Losing to UMES and UMBC is inexcusable, Vlad or no Vlad. Dropping that game against Columbia WITH Vlad? Similarly so. THAT is where I think we didn't meet expectations.
Yes, without Vlad no conference wins, I agree.
ReplyDelete1. Josh Miller is 5'11". Army starts four players 6'3" or shorter.
ReplyDelete2. Funny you should talk about the Holy Cross graduatin rate. According to the latest NCAA report, these are the latest graduation rates for basketball players - both the NCAA measurement (which doesn't penalize teams for transfers who leave) and the federal measurement (which penalizes teams for transfers):
AMERICAN 50% / 14%
Army 98% / na
Bucknell 91% / 84%
Colgate 100% / 88%
HOLY CROSS 100% / 92%
Lafayette 100% / 64%
Lehigh 92% / 67%
Navy 84% / na
http://www.ncaa.org/wps/portal/ncaahome?WCM_GLOBAL_CONTEXT=/ncaa/ncaa/academics+and+athletes/education+and+research/academic+reform/gsr/2009/841gfw951_2009_d1_school_gsr_data.html
Notice that one of the eight isn't like the other seven.
Maybe you'd rather look at the NCAA's APR (Academic Performance Rate), which measures what pct of athletes stay eligible. Or maybe not - AU is last among Patriot League schools in that measurement as well.
If you know any Patriot League history at all, then you know that the sole reason the PL recently introduced an Academic Index for recruited athletes was because of the disgraceful academic performance of AU's basketball players (and wrestlers and swimmers) over a number of years.
sounds like a Holy Cross guy with sour grapes. I believe every senior last yr. graduated with his class, so what are those graduation rates based on?
ReplyDeleteYes this is a young team that is quite inexperienced. But two things are very disappointing to me:
1. After seemingly starting to gel and winning 3 straight, cohesiveness went in the toilet, our coach was outcoached, and our players seemed lost.
2. This year in the League there is no clearly the best and solid team(s). This reminds me of the season when Lehigh won about 6 yrs. ago. So the question therefore is how bad are we when there are no clear favorites. All of the PL teams also have freshmen who are playing. Maybe not as many as AU, but i have seen better freshman guards that seem stronger than our kids on both Lehigh and Bucknell this seaon-. Perhaps our kids will improve and surpass them, but right now all i see that is hopeful are the transfers who will play next season. Top guard play is crucial to winning in this League, since there usually are not top big men.
Perhaps we can turn it around, but the balance of the season as of today looks ominous.
Why don't you check the NCAA site that is linked if you want to understand it??
ReplyDeleteAmerican's latest 4-year graduation rate for basketball players is worse than embarassing!
were the jokes about holy cross' graduation rates simply wrong and not funny. yes. but the patriot league's academic index was in place prior to au joining the patriot league. as for the "disgraceful academic performance of au's basketball players," none of that has taken place under jeff jones. in fact, au has been one of the leaders in the legue in the number of men's basketball players on the patriot league academic honor roll over the last 8 years. it has been well established that au's graduation rate for men's basketball is still indicative of recruits brought in prior to jeff jones being the head coach. i believe every player that finished their career at au under jones in the last 6 years has graduated. as for the fact that au's apr is last in the patriot league, that may be so, i really don't know specifically, but it is still a very "good" number and certainly on par with other patriot league teams.
ReplyDeleteAU swimmers seem to be doing REALLY terribly: http://aueagles.com/sports/c-swim/2009-10/releases/20100211
ReplyDeleteWrestling similarly:
http://aueagles.com/sports/m-wrestl/2009-10/releases/060509aab
Yep, looks like a lot of academic underachievement.
You know, maybe you're right (I don't know that much of the history of the PL, to be honest), maybe there were some academic issues with various AU teams in the past (and maybe there weren't), but that all seems to be behind us now. Kind of like how Holy Cross USED to be a good (and even respected) basketball team, but the Crusaders seem to have put that behind them now as well. Oops.
I don't care that we almost won against Colgate. I look at the way we played, and it was depressing.
ReplyDeleteI didn't have any expectations for this year, how could I? Or anyone? I am pleased at some things I've seen. But I have to say that the last three games have been stepping backwards for us. It's one thing to level off but I don't like going backwards.
This has been an awful year for the PL. AU still has a chance at making noise because the level of play is so bad. We can definitely progress, and we have some really good tools. I think the coaching staff knows what they are doing - considering our limitations at PG and the very dodgy start we had this season.
But we have hit a rut of predictability, fear, and immaturity. That adds up to a loss even against a weakened PL.
Alright, let me correct a few things. First, the jokes about Holy Cross' graduation rates were not directed at any particular athletic teams, just the overall rate. When I wrote that, I knew that Holy Cross' graduation rate (both for athletes and in general) was quite high, which is why I felt OK making that joke. It's just harmless knocking of a big rival. If anyone found those offensive (that is not a Holy Cross student/fan), my apologies. If any Holy Cross students/fans found those offensive, well, suck it up, you know they're not true.
ReplyDeleteAs for Anonymous #1, if you check that link, you'll see in large text "Cohort 1999-2002." So that data is actually at least SEVEN years out of date. Obviously our rate is MUCH higher now (if it was even that low then), evidenced by the fact that seven seniors just walked with their classes for graduation, and the ones playing professionally in various leagues right now all have degrees. Also to rehash Bill's point, Men's Swimming and Wrestling have recently had the highest team GPAs not just in the Patriot League, but in all of Division 1. That sounds like academic achievement to me. Check the links Bill posted if you'd like to eat your own words.
Also, I am confident that we are able to turn our game around tonight. Whether we actually WILL, well, that's up to the team. However merely looking at stats there is nothing that jumps out at me that gives Army a serious advantage over us that I know we can't deal with. Our last game with them was a huge fluke (like, well, most of this season in my opinion). Maybe I set the bar too high, but I think we can pull out a win tonight. I hope I don't eat my own words here.
Steve, your comment about "a rut of predictability, fear, and immaturity" is VERY well put. I totally agree. However, it's always possible to pull oneself out of a rut, and that, by definition, will give us a big element of surprise when we finally do. I just hope that's tonight.
ReplyDeleteAU has not had a player under JJ not graduate unless they transferred. In fact, not one player has even become ineligible due to academics.
ReplyDeleteQuote: "In fact, not one player has even become ineligible due to academics."
ReplyDeleteIt's easy to prove that this is incorrect. The NCAA's APR measures what pct of players are eligible at the end of each semester. AU is last among PL teams in this measurement, and definitely does NOT have a 100% score - which is what they would have if no player had ever become academically ineligible. Not saying a player became ineligible in-season but it's 100% certain that a couple of players flunked spring courses badly - or just quit.
Quote: "As for Anonymous #1, if you check that link, you'll see in large text "Cohort 1999-2002." So that data is actually at least SEVEN years out of date. Obviously our rate is MUCH higher now (if it was even that low then)",
ReplyDeleteSounds like you haven't a clue. The 1998-2002 cohort is NOT "seven years out of date". These are players who entered AU from September 1998-2002. They are allowed six years to graduate for NCAA purposes - so they would have graduated by the 2004-2008 period. With such a low graduation rate for those years, it is very clear that some of the players who played under Jones did not graduate.
As for the silly statement - "if it was even that low then" - all numbers used by the NCAA are self-reported. Meaning that these are AU's own numbers.
Wrestling and swimming also had poor graduation rates for those who entered in the most recent classes tracked by the NCAA. Also, wrestling has had several guys become academically ineligible over the past couple of years, although swimming, to their credit, has done much better.
Alright you've made your point, congratulations I guess?
ReplyDeleteAll of this talk of graduation rates, etc is one big bore. We are talkin' about human beings here, and I can tell you from personal experience that all AU fans should be proud of the intelligent and hard working student athletes from the AU b-ball team. I am personally amazed that anyone can give their time, emotions,and physical energy to D1 b-ball and have anything left to give. AU has recruited within the PL guidelines, as far as I know, and the players seem to take their education seriously. I'm not really sure how anyone goes through the pressures and can still make the grade. Let's get a grip. Screw the statistics. Having this conversation about GW might make sense, but not AU.
ReplyDeleteI think all we need to conclude with here is that the Eagles ended last Spring semester with a 3.0 average GPA. That's a hell of an achievement for any D1 team, especially as good as they were and as hard as they worked last year. I'm certainly quite proud of them and I'm sure all fellow Eagles fans are as well. When the NCAA stats finally reflect that I'll make sure to post them here on AUHoops right away.
ReplyDeleteJones was hired in mid-September of 2000, so very few players during the 1998 - 2002 timeframe were his recruits. In fact, only those incoming players in the fall of 2001 should be treated as "his" players (he didn't recruit the players he inherited for the 2000-2001 season. I don't want to take shots at JJ's predecessor, who recruited under different league (CAA) and different University guidelines, but the approach to attracting student-athletes was different during his tenure. If the question is whether Jones' recruits graduate, then this is not the appropriate timeframe to consider. If you want to look at other indicators of academic performance of his recruits, then you need to review the Patriot League restrictions on accepting athletes whose prior academic performance is beyond 2 standard deviations of the entire incoming class. I haven't been involved with the program since 2002, but Jones was very focused on satisfying the league requirements back then - maybe the restrictions have changed in the interim. The point here is that we would need to look at the overall student body graduation rate in order to make a fair comparison against the other Patriot League schools and we would need to narrow the focus to players who entered the University in the fall of 2001 at the earliest. Class of '83
ReplyDelete