Wow. I'm stunned. I thought having a good night's sleep would bring me to acceptance of the fact that we dropped our first game of the season yesterday afternoon. It didn't. I'm still stunned. This was a game we had firmly in hand and then just kind of, dropped. It wasn't like there was a strong momentum shift or anything, we just let them back into the game, and then they beat us. Vlad did not play yesterday, he was in street clothes. He had a concussion, but I'm not sure where/how/when he picked that up. Hopefully he'll be back for the trip to Morgantown because the prospect of this team going down there without him when they just blew a double-digit lead to Columbia yesterday is terrifying. Anyway, the GOOD, the BAD, and the UGLY.
THE GOOD
Stephen Lumpkins - Lump had a rough first three or four minutes but then came on nicely and picked up another double double. He had 20 points (8-13) and 12 boards and also chipped in three blocks. He did a nice job on interior defense, and also caused a few turnovers with his quick hands. Lump has been on a roll the past few games, and this is the player we all knew had to show up for us to go far this season. Keep it up, big guy, you cannot be stumped!
Simon McCormack - Hell of a game yesterday from Simon, who played 27 minutes and was the team's third highest scorer with 13 (on 6-9 shooting). He also had six rebounds and was all over the court on defense per usual. Simon's minutes have been reduced this year, but it's good to see that he can still be a very productive player when JJ needs to call on him.
Troy Brewer - I don't know what kind of English/rotation/spin Troy puts on the ball. I do know that it makes the smoothest swishes on threes that I maybe have ever seen. The net doesn't even move when he makes these baskets. It's insane. Troy "InsertNicknameHere" Brewer fit into his recent pattern as a sniper again yesterday. He went 4-8 from 3, totaled 18 points, and also had two blocks. He also played 39 minutes and only picked up two fouls. He narrowly missed the chance to make it into the AU legendarium yesterday...with 1.7 seconds left, Hendra inbounded to Lump who kicked it to Troy in the corner. Troy's three was just a little too strong, and we dropped the game 64-62. So, so close. Good game from Troy though, his consistency is definitely improving.
Daniel Fisher - With Vlad out yesterday, Daniel Fisher got the nod over Riley Grafft to play some minutes inside. He ended up playing 13 minutes and got 4 boards and an assist. Some points would have been nice, but he did a good job setting screens on the offensive end and was pretty solid on defense as well. He ended up getting more minutes than Tony Wroblicky yesterday, which was a little surprising. Nice work from the Aussie yesterday.
THE BAD
Point Guard Play - I was at the game yesterday. I watched for the positive intangibles and non-stat sheet items that I was berated for not including in the last Good, Bad, and Ugly. I didn't see them. What I did see was a lot of sloppy ball handling from Hendra (who had an otherwise okay game, but wasn't good enough to make it into the GOOD column), Munoz, and Luptak. They combined for 9 of our 15 turnovers, and honestly there could have been a lot more. Sloppy ball handling. Passes that only just barely made it to who they were supposed to. Not good yesterday. Hence, bad.
Mike Bersch - Bersch made his first career start yesterday (Congrats!), but he didn't make much of it. He only earned 6 minutes and went 0-1 with a turnover. He still looks lost out there on defense, and on the offensive end he doesn't move well with the ball. For the moment it looks like for him to be a weapon we need to get him the ball when he's set behind the three point line. Not sure he'll get another start for a while, especially given how Simon played yesterday. Keep working, Bersch. You know you're a favorite over here. We're pulling for you, but we need to see more out of you than what you gave us yesterday.
Tony Wroblicky - Tony showed flashes of awesomeness yesterday. A nasty block, a nice hook shot fading away from the basket, but he also picked up three personal fouls in nine minutes of play. He was definitely outplayed by Daniel Fisher, who got his first significant playing time ever yesterday. We need Tony to step up to be the guy to back up Lump, ultimately he's got to be the long term option.
THE UGLY
I can't really put my finger on what caused the loss yesterday. I think it was complacency. Sitting in the stands yesterday, we had a double-digit lead, and as a fan, I never thought we'd give it up. Yeah they got close, but I just kept waiting for a Lump dunk or a Brewer three-point dagger to end their run. It didn't happen. All of a sudden it was like "Oh shit, we're down 2." And then, "Oh, SHIT. We're tied." And then, "OH SHIT!! WE'RE LOSING?" And then, finally and sadly, "Oh...shit...we lost that game. What the hell happened?" We had Columbia on the ropes and then just didn't knock them out. It seemed like we just were out there expecting to win, assuming that lead would hold. Well, we assumed wrong, and we dropped a game we definitely should have won. We looked great in stretches yesterday, even without Vlad. And then we looked completely flat. This team is still consistently inconsistent, and that's a bad thing to be with a tough road schedule coming up.
We were going to lose games this season; we knew that. But we shouldn't have lost to Columbia. I think games like this are the difference between a 14 and a 15 seed come tournament time. That assumes we win the PL Tournament, of course, but bear with me. The selection committee expects teams like AU to lose to teams like WVU, Pitt, Northwestern, and Florida. Losing to teams like that don't count too much against us. But the committee will look at the teams who are at our level and see if we beat everyone we should have. If we did that, we're more likely to get a 14, maybe even a high 14, and not a 15. Well, Columbia is a game we should've had. At home, with a double-digit lead, you win that game. I hope it doesn't come back to bite us in the ass come postseason time, assuming there is postseason time.
Thoughts from yesterday?
Pro deo et patria and GO EAGLES!
Wathched the game on streaming video at home (in Delaware), once I realized Vlad was not playing I did not expect the Eagles to win, let along appear to dominate. But that apparently was too good to last. As you noted, weak ballhandling (drippling into trouble especially), made for a troublesome late second half. But the flashes of dominance without their best player (by far), shows that there is enough talent here to win the conference. That's really good!
ReplyDeleteI watched the game as well. I think that fouls should be emphasized as bad/ugly. This entire season, AU has either gotten into foul trouble early, or like yesterday, they foul at the most inappropriate moments--namely, the last two points (and winning points) of the game were from the charity stripe. It seems like many of these fouls are not due to fatigue or lack of discipline; rather, AU's players (especially guards) getting beat to the hoop.
ReplyDeleteAs for the guards, yesterday's ball handling was very poor. Even more telling, was the lack of a point guard who could drive to the basket. Aside from the lack of penetration, the guards had problems moving the ball around smoothly through passes.
The guard position is one in basketball where athleticism is key (and as much as one practices, quickness, especially off the dribble is hard to improve in a short period of time and even harder once the season has started). Which, really makes one wonder why Wayne and Blake do not even get a second of playing time-at least to mix up the quickness element (and especially if Wayne is supposed to have good ball handling)??? Maybe, AU's guards will be able to hang with most PL teams (not all), but to be a great team, you have to be able to move the ball around and drive--so this may be a lingering problem.
At one point JJ mentioned that he just might play the 5 best players if a point guard does not emerge. Will this happen? Would it then be Vlad, Lump, Brewer, Hinkle (when eligible), and Hendra/Simon? What are your thoughts?
Danny normally does an okay job driving to the basket. It's not a strength of Luptak's, and I don't think ever will be. I agree that it makes us losing something considerable to not have any slashers on the court. It takes away a dimension.
ReplyDeleteAs far as the fouls go, yes there were some sloppy ones yesterday. However, the foul on Hendra that put Columbia on the line to win it was necessary. He could've given him the free basket or make him earn it. There was no way for Hendra (barring having speed that he just flat out does not have) to get in front of that guy.
I don't know if you can throw Hinkle in as one of the five best players yet. I know I *want* to assume he will be, but it's hard to make that assumption having only hearsay to go off of. If you trust that hearsay, your lineup makes sense.
It's not something I think JJ will go to any time soon, but I'd like to see Lump and Tony in the game at the same time more often. There aren't many PL teams that could handle two guys that size down low. It would require a lot of reform in the system, but it might be worth it.
I'd like to see Hendra get some more time at the point. All season he has been seeing the floor well and he has been organizing the guys on the floor well. His handle isn't better than Luptak or Munoz's, but it certainly isn't WORSE. And once upon a time Hendra was able to cut inside and split defenses with dribble penetration. Yes he's not a true PG, but he's not a pure SG either. I say give him a shot.
Very much agree B^3--give Hendra a shot at PG, especially if Wayne and/or Blake are not cycled in.
ReplyDeleteAlso, the dual bigman (Lump and Tony) combo is a handy weapon to have, so I hope that they do get more game time together before league play begins.
Is Vlad playing At WVU . . .does anybody know??
ReplyDeleteQuestion for B^3 or Josh,
ReplyDeleteAs Blue Crew-er with a crappy schedule that has prevented me from getting to a game thus far, how does Wroblicky look compared to Lump as a freshman? It seems there are similarities in the type of role Tony plays this year to Lump's role his freshman year backing up Gilmore and Jordan. I also see similar descriptions and the line "flashes of awesomeness" sounds awfully familiar. Fair comparison?
To the last anonymous (and again, I cannot stress enough to all of you enough, pick a handle for commenting. Doesn't have to be your real name, just pick one and stick with it. All the anonymi are confusing.) - From what I remember of Lump as a frosh, a comparison between Tony and frosh Lump is pretty fair. I think Tony moves in the paint now much better than Lump did and has better hands, but I remember Lump being a little stouter on defense than Tony is now. But yes, very similar. Imagine next year when we have Lump as a senior and Tony (assuming he makes the jump from frosh to soph that Lump did) as a soph. Woo boy.
ReplyDeleteWhat a waste of effort.
ReplyDeleteWe come back from an inexplicable 9-0 deficit and take control of the game, and just give it away in the last five minutes for no other reason than we were outhustled. It wasn't Xs and Os, it wasn't coaching or strategy, it wasn't even, really, that Columbia got hot, even though they did. We just flat-out got outworked. There is no excuse for giving up offensive rebounds off of two misses free throws (which led to two three-pointers which were the difference in the game). None. That is just effort, pure and simple-put a body on a guy and move him out of the way.
I don't like turnovers, but they happen. What should never, ever happen with our team is getting outworked. We're not near talented enough to think we can just show up and not work. That's why I think JJ was so upset after the Howard game; Howard is one of the 20-30 worst teams in the country in tems of talent. If you just PLAY HARD, you beat them by 30. We expended the exact minimum amount of effort to beat them, and that's not going to get it done in league play, because everyone plays hard. Army isn't talented, but they play hard. Same with HC, Lehigh, etc.
I'm not sure why these players think they can just coast. They're coming off a 10-18 (or whatever) season. They haven't earned anything. I know they'll play hard against Florida and Pitt and WVU, but they have to play hard every night if they're going to be as good as they can be. Which can be quite good. But only if they give the effort.
BTW, understand the question about Nick at point guard, but Nick would be even more of a turnover machine if he had primary ballhandling responsibilities. Just doesn't have enough ability to go more than a dribble or two, much less initiate the offense. Danny is clearly our best ballhandler, but Luptak is a much, much better defender, and he's a much better passer than Nick. Nick's offensive value is as a slasher/offensive rebounder/occasional three point shooter, not point guard. Big difference between taking one dribble off a curl and being at the basket and trying to break down a defender from 20 feet with three- or four-dribble combinations.
NJJ - Where does Hinkle fit then if Hinkle lives up to the hype? Nick has played too well this season to get benched in favor of Hinkle. Hinkle isn't going to start over the PG, Troy, Lump, or Vlad. I think there's too much talent between Hinkle and Nick to not give them both as much time as possible. So how do you manage that? I understand what your saying about Hendra's shortcomings as THE potential PG, but I think he can do it. Might it be a little rough while he gets into it? Yes, very rough. Ugly even. Is that worth being able to put this lineup on the court: Hendra, Brewer, Hinkle, Moldoveanu, Lumpkins? I think we should see.
ReplyDeleteLike I told Josh, though. None of us is ever going to out-coach JJ. If Hendra could run the point, he probably already would be. BUT, he never ran the offense last year like he has this year. All I'm saying is give it a try.
It's pretty easy to see our deficiencies in this game: we are pussycats except for Lumpkins. Only one offensive rebound - aside from Lump. Troy Brewer only one rebound all game. Does he ever rotate down low when a shot goes up? On either side of the court?
ReplyDeleteTurnovers were bad. Fifteen is a lot *for this game.* And some of them were BAD turnovers, mis-communication and lame-brained stuff on the perimeter. AU attempted to blow-out Colombia in the second half and it backfired considerably. We don't break well, and I saw awful attempts to score easily on the break go awry.
AU had a lot of good off-the-ball movement all game. But we froze once a shot went up. AU did well to go repeatedly to Lumpkins, but he missed 4 times early. As we all know, he is capable of making really good moves, but also capable of blowing a chip shot. Max Craig, their 7-footer, did not pick up a single foul in 18 minutes of covering Lump.
We missed Vlad terribly as he is our only other player not afraid to mix it up down low.
Colombia had better point guard play than we did, and this from a sophomore at a non-scholarship school.
All things considered, a result to be expected from a team missing their best player, but disappointing that we blew a 13-point lead at the under-eight timeout against an average Ivy League team.
Steve and NJJ - I have no way to contact you other than the comments here, so I just thought I'd let it be known. Usually I'm down on press row for the home games, feel free to stop by and say hi, I'd love to thank you for your contributions to the blog.
ReplyDeleteTroy is usually the first one back on defense, so I don't think he's often rotating in when a shot goes up. The rest of them, I'm not sure. I'll be sure to watch that from now on.
I think Hinkle is going to play a lot of forward, actually--including power forward. At first glance that seems odd, given that he was a guard at Vanderbilt, but in the PL, he's quite suited to play some four. Think of it this way: Zahir Carrington was listed at 6-7, 220, which means he was probably really 6-5 or so, and 205-210, and he played inside. Hinkle's listed at 6-5, 210, meaning he's likely 6-3 or 6-4, and 200. But he's probably got the best upper body of anybody on the team. I think you'll see us use a lineup some times with Troy at the two, Hinkle at the three, Vlad at the four and Lump in the middle. Against teams like Lehigh that don't have great size, we could even go Troy-Hinkle-Vlad across the front. Depends on matchups.
ReplyDeleteAnd there's no way the PL champ is a 14 this year. No way. And there's only a small, small chance it's a 15. With the new format, there's no way the PL is going to avoid a 16 unless someone has a monster non-conference record. The conference as a whole is really down this year; there haven't been any good wins that I know of over any even halfway decent teams.
Nick at point guard is not realistic. If Jones thought that was a possibility he would have tried it. If he thought Blake or Simon was a better point guard he would have tried that. This is a coach who has won over 300 games. I think he has a better feel for who needs to start than anybody on this board. When or if they beat Luptak or Munoz out for the position he will be the first person to make the change.
ReplyDeleteWe complain about the point guard play when we win 5 straight and we complain about them when we blow a 13 point lead. No credit is given to them when we mount that 13 point lead. What is it then. They are no good when we build the lead and no good when we lose the lead. The truth is they had little involvement in our losing the lead. You will need to look elsewhere for the scapegoat.
NJJ - Thanks for the analysis on Hinkle. Good points re: his strength inside and ability to be a PL forward. Sorry to hear you don't think the PL can be a 14 this year. I'll keep up hope I guess. You didn't, however, say who you think will lose minutes to give Hinkle his. Curious to know that if you care to share it.
ReplyDeleteLast anonymous - did you watch the Columbia game? Did you see the hideous ball handling? You were okay with that? No complaints? There's a reason I've been complaining about the point guard play on this team. Because it's consistently been the weakest part of the team this year. Has it been consistently bad? No, but in relative terms to everything else we've done, it's been consistently weak. If you want to make an argument to the contrary, that's fine. On defense, they CAN do a pretty good job, though they've been outplayed by a number of other backcourts already, (UMES, FAU, Columbia). They haven't done anything remarkable (or consistent) on the offensive end as far as I'm concerned. Calling it like I've seen it, but I, of course, do respect the other views in the commentariat. Many of you know a lot more than I do.
Any official update on Vlad, with regards to whether he will start against WVU? I watched the game on Eagle Vision and during halftime Kieran Donohue was interviewed. He mentioned Vlad's absence, but did not state anything about whether he would be back for the next game. Any word yet?
ReplyDeleteNo word yet as far as I've heard. I don't suspect we'll find out until game time.
ReplyDeleteSure, B^3, I'll be happy to say hello, but in your photo you don't look like you're dressed for press row.... however, I do post using my e-mail address which is stevenDOTsiegelATymailDOTcom
ReplyDeleteObviously we are all just guessing right now about possible lineups. I am also wondering just how bad Riley Grafft has gotten to not earn any playing time with Vlad out.
In terms of potential lineups with Hinkle, I don't see JJ going away from the PGs he has groomed. Hendra has had zero minutes at that position, so I don't think he will be ready.
In answer to a previous question, Wroblicky is no Lumpkins, as a frosh. Lumpkins came in to the program with a variety of capable moves down low and with a knack for missing but getting his own rebound. He has always been a solid defender, and by the end of his freshman season he stood up well to Dante Cunningham. Right in his first game as a freshman, he showed he had some defensive skills against Oklahoma. He is probably the best freshman big man recruit ever at AU (since the year freshmen were allowed to play) - though Craig Sedmack was a 4-year starter. Wroblicky is more typical of AU freshmen throughout the years.
FYI - and this has me the most excited, The WVU game will be on (and I think in HD) on MASN
ReplyDeleteDoes anyone know the 1st game in which Hinkle will be eligible to play?
ReplyDeleteOur pt guard play is pitiful. Luptak is terrible n he is our starter. Danny n Blake r much better. I'm sure Wayne is also better. We cannot have played N easy schedule thus far n our guards cannot keep anyone out of the paint. Why doesn't jj Giv Blake or Wayne a chance. Primarily Blake. Based on what I saw last year Blake would atleast take chances n penetrate the defense. Cmon jj givem a chance
ReplyDeleteRegarding AU Alum question -- I believe Hinkle can play beginning at the first game after the offical end of the first semester. Last year, Vlad played, I believe, on Dec. 17th (in Chicago, at DePaul). The next obvious question of course is -- does the semester end after the last day of classes or exams, according to the NCAA?? I don't know the answer to that.
ReplyDeleteThanks Haywood. Hopefully that is the case, which would mean that Hinkle would be eligible for the Pitt game on the 22nd.
ReplyDeleteI don't think it'll be that hard to find minutes for Hinkle. Right now, Brewer is averaging about 35 mins/game, Lump 32 and Vlad 30. There's 40 minutes per game available at the 3/4/5 spots, so 120 minutes total between the three. I bet JJ would like to get Brewer closer to 28-30 minutes, so there's minutes there. And as I said, I bet JJ uses Brewer some at the two and plays Hinkle at the three. Charles probably isn't going to get more than 15 minutes a game, but they could be very helpful minutes, especially on nights when Lump and/or Vlad is in foul trouble. As for eligibility, I don't know the rules, but if he has to wait a calendar year, it's probably late Dec./early January before he's clear. Vandy didn't announce his transfer until Dec. 29. That doesn't mean that was the day he transferred, of course, and hopefully it was earlier.
ReplyDeleteHinkle is in the same boat that Vlad was in last year, which would make him available as soon as the semester is over. Exams end on December 13, so he should be able to play at UMBC on December 14.
ReplyDeleteThis article makes it seem like Vlad will not be starting until Sunday. Let's just hope that it is not worded clearly. Anyone else have an update?
ReplyDeletehttp://aueagles.com/sports/m-baskbl/2010-11/releases/20101130av5otc
in the game notes, Vlad is listed as a projected starter. For whatever that's worth.
ReplyDelete