Well, it's that time of year again. Time for us to give you our quasi-semi-professional and barely cogent analysis into the teams that our AU Eagles will face off against before starting their Patriot League campaign. Jeff Jones and Co. have a pretty challenging schedule laid out for the Eagles, including two invitationals, which is great because we have a team that should be able to live up to the challenge. Some perennial opponents make it onto this list, and there are a number of teams that we played last year that we'll get to measure up against once more this year. Without any further waffling, let's get to it!
November 4 - 7:30pm - Bender Arena - Randolph-Macon
The Eagles will go with only one exhibition game this year, but it's going to be a doozy. Randolph-Macon stunned the Eagles in their opener last season 49-47 on a last second coast-to-coast layup. Not a great way to start the season. While we're all eager to take the sting out of the Yellow Jackets in payback, it won't be a cakewalk. Randolph-Macon is an excellent DIII school, and it returns everyone of consequence from a team that went to the DIII Final Four last year. The Yellow Jackets return their top 12 scorers and minute-takers from last year's team that notched 26 wins, third most in the program's history. Randolph-Macon is led by 6'9" senior Brandon Baxter, pre-season All-American Honorable Mention; we'll have plenty of opportunity to see how Lumpkins is coming into the off-season when he matches up against Baxter. They'll also already have had a tune-up exhibition game. The Eagles had better come into this game ready to work. They'll be facing a veteran group with a ton of consequence and a game already under their belt. While I'd like to see an Eagles win (when wouldn't I?) this one certainly is not a gimme. Ed. Note: Uh, we won. So, go me.
November 12 - 7:30pm - Bender Arena - St. Francis (PA)
Riley Grafft had a breakout game last year against the Red Flash that let us know he had put the work in during the offseason that was going to make him a serious component of the team. Riley put up 14 in the first half and the Eagles took an 11 point lead into halftime. The second half was another story and the Eagles ran out of gas and dropped the game, 65-61. The Red Flash return four starters this year but will be without Devin Sweetney, who was by far the team's leading scorer. This year I think we can expect to give St. Francis a quiet bus ride home. Remember, we had no Vlad last season and still came within 4 points of beating them on their home court. With home court advantage and a slough of players we didn't have last year, the Eagles should pull out the win.
November 15 - 7:00pm - AWAY - University at Albany
Last season the Great Danes edged the Eagles 51-50 in the Eagles' home opener. In what was a sloppy game (both teams shot under 40%), only two Eagles scored in double figures. Danny Munoz's runner in the lane fell just short and the SUNY Dirty Dogs walked away with the W. This was one of only 7 wins on the entire season for the Danes, which made it an embarrassing one for AU, even in an off year. I have to make mention that Albany had a very impressive fan section for that game, one of the stronger ones we saw all year, in fact. Albany returns 3 starters for this year's campaign. Road games are always tough, and this will be AU's first of the year. You have to imagine we have a good shot against Albany, even on the road. Same logic as I used against St. Francis, if we kept it close without Vlad, I have to believe that with the additions of Vlad and Troy we're going to drive out of the Empire State with a victory.
November 17 - 7:30pm - Bender Arena - University of Maryland - Eastern Shore
Losing to the Hawks last year was downright embarrassing for the Eagles. At the time it was a battle of defeateds and it seemed like the Eagles would finally earn their first victory at their fellow birds of prey's expense. Alas, it wasn't to be. AU played an ugly disjointed game and just could not get anything going. The Hawks return a lot of experience this year, but to me it's inconceivable that we would drop two games in a row to this team, especially this year on our home court.
November 20 - TBA - AWAY - Florida Atlantic University
The saddest part about this year's non-conference schedule is that the FAU away game means I won't be able to remind Mike Jarvis about how far he's fallen. That aside, the Owls stole our lunch in Bender last year and then handed it back to us, half-eaten, to the tune of an 81-69 defeat. Despite 23 points from Lump and 13 and 10 respectively from freshmen Blake Jolivette and Mike Bersch, AU couldn't overcome five different Owls scoring in double figures. The Owls, jokes aside, have a tremendous coach in Jarvis, and they've been picked to finish 2nd in the Eastern Division of the Sun Belt. They also return their top 3 scorers from last year. AU will have to bring their best to beat this team away from Bender.
November 23 - 7:00pm - AWAY - Howard University
We owe the Bison for finally delivering our first regular season win last year. Just when we were wondering when the despair would finally dissipate, the Bison came in and dropped a 59-53 decision to the Eagles. Now we'll have to travel across town to face them on their court. The Bison have a new head coach in Kevin Nickelberry who will try to turn things around for a program that has really struggled recently (7-25 last year). They return their top scorer from last year, but I think this team will need another year to adjust to their new coach's system. Even on an away court, the Eagles should get the victory.
November 28 - 2:00pm - Bender Arena - Columbia
Speaking of teams with new head coaches...Columbia returns three of its top five scorers from last year, a year where it finished fifth in the Ivy League and went 11-17. This was a terribly frustrating game last year as AU went 6-20 from behind the arc and didn't even bother trying to use the entire possession to get an open look. Vlad shot 6-16 and 2-8 and the rest of the Eagles didn't get anything going either. This was a game that we thought was definitely winnable on paper and throughout the game and we just didn't get it done. Revenge will be sweet for the Eagles this year when the Lions come into Bender.
December 1 - 2:00pm - AWAY - West Virginia
Well, let's get right down to it. The Mountaineers were the Big East champions last year and went to the Final Four. Coach Bob Huggins is arguably one of the best coaches in the country in terms of getting the most out of his players. Even though WVU has some disciplinary issues, I can't imagine a scenario in which we go into their home court and shock the world. True, WVU does have to replace the scoring and rebounding of Da'Sean Butler and the defense of Devin Ebanks, but this is a tremendously experienced team. We'll see how it goes, maybe they'll all get a bout of pertussis or something before we step on the court. AU isn't going to go undefeated this season, and the Mountaineers will be one reason why.
Projected schedule after this stretch of the season: 5-2
What are your thoughts? Let us known in the comments!
Pro deo et patria and GO EAGLES!
Great analysis. The 5-2 record seems very plausible. FAU is solid and gets about the same recruiting rankings (maybe slightly higher) from ESPN as AU has had in the last few seasons. This info is available at this link http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/recruiting/school/_/id/2226/class/2010
ReplyDeleteWith this said, a win on the road against FAU would really show that AU is living up to its potential early in the season. So, lets hope for 6-1.
I say 3-3. They always start slow, and to be honest even the team of Mercer-Carr performed quite poorly in the beginning of the year (no this team is not better than that team, they just have more decent players, but less "stars").
ReplyDeleteWhile I think this team will be the best in the Patriot League, the first 6 games will be a struggle. .500 will be fine.
2nd anonymous, who do you think the 3rd loss comes against? I agree that we always start slow, but I don't see a team other than WVU or FAU that beats us. Albany? Maybe? Because it's away? Otherwise I don't see us losing at Bender.
ReplyDelete