Friday, November 27, 2009

These Hawks Could Be Doves

I hope everyone enjoyed a happy, restful Thanksgiving! For a day our collective thoughts turned from Eagles to Turkeys, and we reflected on the things in our lives we are grateful for. For example, Mike Bersch's hot 3-point shooting, time spent with family and friends, Riley Grafft's first career double-double (matching the number of double-doubles we had the entirety of last season), and possibly even the sport of football (coming from Connecticut, this writer often forgets there are sports other than college basketball).

Of course, our 0-6 record probably wasn't high on too many people's lists yesterday. The last time our record was this abysmal was...December 2005, when many of last season's star players were mere freshmen themselves. Derrick Mercer was already a consistent start (and eventually PL Rookie of the Year), but Garrison Carr was two seasons away from coming off the bench. Jordan Nichols and Brian Gilmore looked on as George Mason pounded us 75-35 in the BB&T Classic (in which I would argue the Eagles should still compete) to bring us to that fateful 0-6. Ah, maybe this season isn't quite so bad, then.


Finally, however, we're meeting an opponent that I can comfortably say we have a real shot at beating. No, this isn't hyperbole. I'm not merely crossing my fingers and hoping no one from the University of Maryland - Eastern Shore sees the image above and laughs. You read it here first: the UMES Hawks are bird meat. Without risking sounding overconfident, let me explain:
  • The Hawks are 0-5 on the season, meaning this will definitely be a grudge match between two teams looking for a win. Our similarly abysmal record likely means the Hawks see this as a real shot for them to add a W to their record as well. Oh, how wrong they are.
  • UMES can't even chalk it up to youthful inexperience, as they feature only two true freshmen on their team (compared to our seven), and two sophomores (and one is redshirting the year).
  • The Hawks have been losing by an average margin of 22 points over the last five games. Over our last six, our average margin of defeat is only 8.5 points.
  • We beat out UMES in every statistical category except for one, steals. The Hawks have been averaging 4.2 steals a game to our 4.0. Considering how many we gave up to Manhattan, we need to watch this, but it shouldn't be too much of a problem if we can figure out how to hold the ball. Surprisingly the Hawks are averaging more turnovers per game than we are, which somewhat balances that out.
  • UMES only has one player who can look eye-to-eye with Lumpkins or Grafft, 7-0 Junior Center RJ Tucker. His stats are nowhere near either Lumpkins or Graft, however, so I'm thinking he's mostly there as a large body. Fortunately for UMES, he "listens to rap music before every game." Uh, that should help, I guess?
  • In the battle of the mascots, the Eagle beats out the Hawk every time.
I think we pretty much know where our players are after Bill's great recap of the Manhattan game, so I'll try not to merely repeat what he said.
  • Simply put, Bersch is explosive off the bench and fires away the 3 as much as he can, and in the last 4 games he's put away 12 of them. I think Bersch definitely has the potential to beat Garrison Carr's all-time AU 3-point record. I know it's very, very early in his career, but I'm calling it now. There were still other very dominant players during Garrison's rookie season (remember, last time we were 0-6), so he didn't really come off the bench until his Junior year. I don't want to get too far ahead of myself, but I predict Bersch could be off the bench as early as next season, and might even start a game or two this season if Jones is feeling adventurous.
  • Lumpkins is averaging 14 points and more than 8 rebounds per game, and if he can sustain those numbers he will average more rebounds than any other player in the Jones era.
  • Our starting lineup is projected to be Lumpkins, Hendra, Luptak, Grafft, and Jolivette. Again Blake looks like he'll be getting the nod over Danny, although both will surely see decent play time. Both guards need to pick up their games a little, and be more comfortable with the ball. They give up far too many turnovers, but they might be able to begin to limit this against a team like the Hawks. I'd really like to see both of them in the "GOOD" column after this game, and I'm confident they can both do it.
  • As a team we've recorded 2 double-doubles this season so far (1 each for Lumpkins and Grafft). That's how many we had the entirety of last season, believe it or not.
  • We've never played the Hawks before (on the men's side, anyway), so tomorrow is a fine day to set a precedent if they decide to come to Bender next season.
Well there you go, Eagles fans, all that's left now is to actually play the game. I'll be liveblogging starting at about 1:45 (tip off is at 2:00 PM), and what better way to work off the last of Grandma's "secret stuffing" than by joining me right here at AUHoops.com? Our last liveblog was very successful so I'm hoping this one will be even more so - and topped off of course with our first win of the season. Additionally live video, audio, and stats can be accessed on UMES' Web site, here.

See you at 2:00 PM tomorrow!

Go Eagles,
Josh

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