Woo. Took me long enough to get this up, eh? So I didn't see the game last night. I'm going off of what I read through various recaps and the box score. Take this analysis with a grain of salt, I guess. I'm hoping you'll bail me out and post in the comments what you saw or heard last night. Or don't. It's Friday night after all.
Anyway. Some things I think.
- Glad to see Vlad's shot selection change a little bit last night. He was successful WITHOUT the long ball (only attempted two 3's and hit one of them). Still, he was the team's leading scorer with 21. Vlad lately has been relying too much on the long ball. This hopefully is a good reminder to him that he can score, at a serious clip, within the arc.
- Lump's foul trouble really hurt us inside last night. With 6 points and 1 rebound, this is definitely his worst game of the season. It's curious to me that he only played 14 minutes and yet Fisher and Wroblicky combined for just 8 minutes. I'm guessing they moved Vlad over to the 5 and put Hinkle at the 4 (since Hinkle had 24 minutes). Strange lineup. Tony Wroblicky's minutes have really dropped off lately. We saw him a lot at the beginning of the season, but he started to fall off a bit and now we don't see him much at all. Disappointing, but I hope that he can battle through and earn some more minutes as we get to PL play.
- Another solid game out of Troy Brewer last night. There's a rumor he even dunked the ball and didn't get a technical. Jokes aside, a very respectable stat line from him last night.
- To be within 4 of this Northwestern team at halftime is something that should be applauded. I didn't think there was much chance of us pulling this game out, and, well, we didn't pull this game out. You do have to wonder why the second half woes that we had so badly last year are creeping back on us again. AU appears to have come out flat after halftime. Northwestern started the 2nd half with a 22-6 run. Oof. Brutal.
- This is a Northwestern team that is very, very talented. Shurna is going to make a solid run for 1st team Big 10, and Michael Thompson is having a great season as well. Aside from those two we did a pretty good job on defense (holding them to 8-22). But, well, those two are a pretty big part of the offense so I guess it's a wash analysis.
- Nice game from Simon last night. As I mentioned in the last recap, his minutes are going to be reduced. To get 4 points, 3 boards, and 3 assists in 13 minutes says to Jeff Jones, "I'm productive, you've got to find me some minutes." Having Lump in foul trouble last night opened up some time for Simon by way of shifting Hinkle over.
Anyway, that's all I've got. What did you all see and want to share? Are we excited for Mt. St. Mary's on Monday?
Pro deo et patria and GO EAGLES!
As usual our point guards were ineffective, slow, and zero points. While we all hope to see improvement from Munoz, all that he has shown so far is minor improvement in ball handling. Unfortunately neither of our point guards could start for any of our opponents so far this season. It is what it is and the situation appears to be scary when we go into PL play.
ReplyDeleteJones sat Lumpkin with 4 fouls with about 8 minutes to play and he did not get back in the game. I think that says how JJ felt about Lump's play that game.
AU played very well in the first half. We hit some key outside shots as NU was focusing on interior defense. They changed their defense in the second half to deny us the shot. We went inside, and therein lies the problem. We finished poorly. I saw five VERY easy buckets blown. Real gimmies. Plus the blown fastbreak with Hendra and Brewer.
ReplyDeleteAU wilted after that. We saw the court well, and we couldn't convert.
Ironic that we absorbed NU's best hit in the first half when Shurna couldn't miss, and we kept up with them. After the break, NU was no longer deadly, but AU wilted.
I hope last night will end all discussion about Nick playing point guard. Steve mentioned the ridiculous decision Nick made on the 2 on 1 with Brewer, but he followed that up with an equally bad attempt at an entry pass from 20 feet away. He makes horrible decisions with the ball, and always has. Would rather have Luptak dribbling the ball outside to no effect than turning it over for empty possessions. Again, I don't think Nick is without value; he hit some threes last night and gave a good effort on D. He's just not a point guard.
ReplyDeleteAgree with you on Shurma; he's a terrific player. Thompson is very good, too. Northwestern is going to be a factor in the Big 10 this year, and I think they'll finally break the streak and get into the tournament. (Let's remember that. We got to the NCAAs before they did.)
JJ essentially went to four guards (Luptak, Hendra, Brewer, Hinkle) when Lumpkins got into foul trouble; Hinkle may have nominally been playing the floor but he wound up taking a lot of threes and didn't post up very much.
I wasn't overly displeased with the outcome; I think Hendra and Vlad had open threes early in the second that would have kept us close and missed them. It happens. Northwestern is just better than we are; they broke down our defense the second or third time. Very patient group. Good team. Let's hope we can rebound against the Mount.
This is AU Alum:
ReplyDeleteThis is a quote from JJ that appeared in the game recap on AU's website. Even with Hinkle, the team just can't keep up with teams like Northwestern. Very similar to JJ's comment's about the 'Nova game, i.e., the team just could not keep up. The positive is that games like these should only make the team better, and more prepared for PL play.
"We played hard but I think in the second half we just got worn down," Head Coach Jeff Jones commented. " This was a very explosive team, probably the most explosive team we've played. I was pleased with our effort but we just couldn't keep up."
A couple of responses:
ReplyDeleteBoots - The PG situation isn't scary when we go into PL play. This team is the far and away favorite to win the PL, even with the PGs we have. Where it's scary is in post-PL play (i.e. the tournament, should we get there) where our backcourt will get eaten alive.
NJJ - The only thing I take exception to with your comment is: "He makes horrible decisions with the ball, and always has." I don't think Hendra is the turnover machine that you portray him to be. If he had a history of making terrible decisions with the ball in the way that you say, there is no way he would have gotten as much play from JJ as he has over the past four years.
AU Alum - My concern with JJ's comments is that it IS so reminiscent of the Nova game. He seems resigned that we just aren't going to be able to keep up with teams like Northwestern. I don't get that. If you know you have a shortcoming, why not try to correct it? What can he do to put our team in a better position to keep up with these teams? Is it just an issue of our personnel not being good enough, ever, to keep up? I think that's a cop out.
I was at the game, so I didn't have the benefit of instant reply, but here are some of my thoughts:
ReplyDeleteThis was a team we had a very good chance of beating. Shurna for NW was absolutely amazing. But other than him, they had a very beatable team. West Virginia and Florida did not have anyone as close to him in skill-level, yet I would say they were overall better teams.
Although NW definitely turned on the defensive pressure in the 2nd half, AU made so many terrible decisions with and without the ball that the blame can't really fall squarely on the superiority of Northwestern (no matter what JJ says). Shurna is an all-around great player, but here a few things that had we done better, this would have been a tight game until the very end:
Defending the back-door: Back-door cuts absolutely destroyed us. The offense they ran was quite complex, but it seemed like the more basic plays we often did not defend well on. Baseline off-the-ball cuts to the rim were a major problem, many of which should have been easily defended. Not only that, but these types of things are all over the scouting report and it took wayy too long for our team to adjust to something that they must have prepared for.
More shooting from Brewer, and less from Hinkle: Vlad tried his best to score, but we need another option. Troy has proven that his strength is definitely not putting the ball on the floor, so JJ has to find other ways to get him open. While he made great decisions with the ball, he often did not have enough room to take a shot. I'd also love to see him get more aggressive and maybe take some shots that aren't as open as he'd like. Hinkle did this all the time, a bit too much actually. I would love to see Brewer get more aggressive and Hinkle a bit less. I don't think throwing up three's is Hinkle's specialty, but it is Brewer's specialty. While it makes sense that Hinkle has yet to find his comfort zone, it seems like Brewer is also lost at times as to his role on the offense. Hopefully this will just take more time.
Rebounding: When Vlad is your center, you're gonna get out-rebounded. As much as putting a small squad on the floor made sense offensively, it absolutely destroyed our already over-matched rebounding ability. BUT, there were a few times that simply putting a body on a NW player would have resulted in a few more bounds.
Lumpkins playing BIG: I was shocked to find Vlad playing better defense on NW's big-man Mirkovic than Lumpkins did. JJ was actually furious everytime Lumpkins would get killed defending a post-up and I find it doubtful that even if he had not gotten in foul trouble that JJ would have played him much. It was probably one of his worst games I've seen him in an AU uniform. Out-rebounded, out-muscled, and out-witted.
Turnovers: As often is the problem, we made way to many turnovers. This was a problem mainly just in the second half. No one can win a game when you're getting out-rebounded and turning the ball over. The percentage of possession is just too low.
Lastly. PRACTICE FAST BREAKS FOR THE LOVE OF GOD.
I've probably seen only ONE well executed fast-break all season. The spacing is terrible, the passing is terrible, the finishing is terrible. Come on. All it takes is practice.
P.S. Although Brewer did have a dunk on a fast break and didn't get a technical, he was called for a travel on the play. Although I didn't have the benefit of instant reply, it seemed like he shuffled his feet in his leap towards the basket. I was pretty shocked by the call because it was one of those things that referees almost never call, but I guess it was just one of those nights for AU.
Wow, that came across much more negatively than intended. Anyway, we played defensive on Shurna very well, especially Hinkle. Our first-half was outstanding. Just gotta work on fishing the game off.
ReplyDeleteB^3: Respectfully, I must disagree. Coming into his senior season, Nick had 141 career assists and 141 turnovers. That's an assist-turnover ratio of .959. That's abysmal for any guard, let alone a point guard, where an A/T ratio of 2.0 is average and 3.0 is very good. (Your off-guard should be somewhere in the 1.5-2 range.)
ReplyDeleteHis A/T so far this season is 1.57--a little better, but still not that good for someone who handles the ball a lot.
It didn't hurt us that much when Mercer had the ball in his hands most of the time, but now, Nick does have the ball a lot because we obviously don't really have a point. I think JJ sees the other things Nick does well--he is defending this season and he has had some good offensive games.
Make that 147 turnovers for Nick coming into this season.
ReplyDeleteWhether Hendra turns the ball over a lot or a little, I think one thing is true: He will be coming off the bench in the next game. Jones would be crazy not to start Hinkle. And I think Hendra would provide some good energy off the bench anyway.
ReplyDeleteNJJ, that's fair. Thanks for doing the leg work on the stats. One thing though...his A/T number is better this year and you admit that he has to handle the ball more this year. Kind of hurts your argument a little bit, but I understand what you're saying. I wouldn't have put the ball in Nick's hands the past three seasons, but this year I think he's made a big leap in his level of play.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the analysis, JDF. It's helpful to hear from someone who was there!
"This team is the far and away favorite to win the PL, even with the PGs we have. "
ReplyDeleteNo, AU is a slight favorite. Bucknell has been playing well and LU is improving. In fact, Sagarin's ratings say Bucknell and Lehigh, based on performance to date, would be slight favorites over AU on a neutral court. Pomeroy also has BU at #1 in the PL at the moment.
Regardless of ratings, the games are won on the court, so we'll see what happens. At the moment, however, AU is definitely not "by far and away the favorite to win the PL."