Goooood evening AU Hoops fans. Hope you're all doing well and have been enjoying your weekend! I'm here to preview tomorrow night's matchup with the Mountaineers of Mt. St. Mary's, which is at 7pm and isn't televised. We'll most likely have a liveblog here per our usual routine.
On paper this is a game that AU should win. The Mount has struggled its way to a 3-8 record and was just blown out playing in Albany 77-57 to a team that we beat by 16 points. By the transitive property, which we all know is rock solid in college basketball, it means we will beat Mt. St. Mary's by 36. Take it to your bookie and bet your house on it.
The Mountaineers have four guys averaging around double figures, but none of them is particularly impressive. Hopefully our backcourt will have a good game against guards that are on their level. Lamar Trice handles the ball extremely well, but he's undersized, even compared to our guards. Hopefully we can keep bodies in front of him and keep him from doing too much on the offensive end.
Look for Lumpkins to rebound (get it?) in this game against an undersized Mount team without a formidable front court. The Unstumpable One was thoroughly stumped against Northwestern, and you have to hope it was just a hiccup or a disagreement he has with the Chicago air.
For the season, Mt. St. Mary's is shooting just 41% from the field. This bodes well for an AU defense that does a good job (usually) limiting its opponents shots and forcing them to take 2nd or 3rd choices in shot selection. Hopefully we can drive that number down to the 35% range and really confound Robert Burke's team on the offensive end.
On our offensive end, I think we're going to have too many weapons for the Mountaineers to keep up with. Inside or outside, I think we're going to overwhelm this team, which gives up an average of 66 a game.
Be on the lookout for whether Hinkle moves into the starting lineup tomorrow night. Some commenters have guessed that he will, but I'll be surprised, and a little disappointed, if Hendra losing his starter status in favor of the newcomer.
We'll see you here tomorrow night!
Pro deo et patria and GO EAGLES!
I think even with our MISERABLE play at the point, we will still win the conference this year. Not trying to jinx it, but the conference is pretty bad this year if you guys haven't noticed.
ReplyDeleteWith that in mind, I will state this: if we had a PG who was at the level of skill as the rest of our starters, we're a beyond dangerous team. We win the PL with relative ease. Heck, if we had that kind of PG, we would be an incredibly dangerous 14/15 seed that no powerhouse would want to see in March.
Vlad-I know a lot of people "in the know" in the business of basketball and he's a Europe level player. He could probably start his career off in first division in France which is a pretty good league overseas. Not Spain/Italy level, but still pretty good. It would certainly be the most skilled league any of our alums have gone to play in, even more so than Ingram in the NBDL
Brewer-You can already tell he's going to be such a mismatch for the rest of the conference. He's just a different caliber of player with his level of explosiveness and overall quickness, plus he can shoot.
Lump-Can probably mount a decent post AU career playing in lower tier Europe (Finland, Switzerland, etc...) and for a Patriot League big man, that's pretty damn good. He's not amazing, but he's capable of a double-double on any given night.
Hendra-The fact that there's speculation that Hinkle might relocate Nick to the bench speaks volumes. Our 3rd/4th option on offense and he would easily start on any team in the conference. On the lower level teams he would probably the guy. I think Nick has had a lot of unfair expectations during his playing career at AU. He came in and played so brilliantly when Bryce Simon was injured, that it elevated everyone's expectations for the kid. In truth, the player he always was is the player he is now. He does a little bit of everything and is a leader.
Hinkle-Same thing with Brewer. Athletically, I think he's a quantum leap from your average Patriot League player. If we benched Nick in favor of Hinkle, would I feel bad for Nick? Absolutely. Would I understand it from a basketball standpoint? Absolutely. Hinkle is a hell of athlete capable of scoring, and a great defender.
Our bench is a little thin beyond Hinkle. Simon is a capable player and JJ seems to like Fisher. He's tough and a big body, but doesn't do much.
And then the PGs, Our downfall. G-d, I can't stand them. I'm sure Munoz and Luptak give it their all for the program, but they just aren't good. In comparison to the talent they're surrounded with, they don't do the rest of the team justice. In comparison to when we get pit against a team like Ohio State or Kansas State in the tournament, they're intramural players playing significant time at the point for a D1 Basketball program.
The 1 is just such a vital position at the college game and we don't have the quality of player and it's going to cost us. It might even cost us winning the conference. Every time they take the ball in transition I cringe. Every time one of them gets into a pressure situation like a double team I cringe.. I've been a diehard Eagles fan since I was a little kid and we've almost always had solid point guard play. Darryl Franklin? Point guard we had from Chantilly. He was a tough competitor who was a good leader. Jaron Childs? Solid on offense, and on D.Glenn Stokes? One of the best offensive PGs AU has ever seen. Could drive and shoot the lights out of the ball. Andres Rodriquez? Watching him play at times was frustrating, not because of him. There were times he would throw passes that were so crisp and hard that his teammates couldn't handle them. He would scoop a pass to a big man off the drive that was so nice the receiving end couldn’t handle it. Remember that 20 assist game he had against Navy? Derrick Mercer? Great competitor and game manager for us, offensively he tried to score a little too much at times but he still was great.
Man, we need a PG.
I wouldn't quite call Luptak and Munoz intramural players getting D1 time, but they are the weak link on this team. If we had a real weapon at the point, I agree we'd be very, very dangerous. As it is, Luptak and Munoz are back-ups, even at the PL level. Some nights they look great (see: UMBC, an 0-10 team), but most nights they're non-existent.
ReplyDeleteKeys to Victory:
ReplyDelete3 players score in double digits with Lump getting a double double
AU out rebounds
AU scores 70 or more points
BUT
If AU socres more than 60 we should be in a position to win the game
and/or
AU leading with 5 minutes remaining
In two or three years time I can imagine Robert Burke will have turned the Mount into a formidable opponent yet again. However, he hasn't yet had time to recruit his own players into his system, so what he's working with this season is a bit of a mismatch. Because of RB and JJ's relationship, expect this traditional matchup for AU to continue into the foreseeable future - but this might be one of the last times we mark them off as an easy win. That's a lot of built-up respect for RB from last year talking, there.
ReplyDeleteIt is yet a question just how good anyone on this team is. Lots of questions to be answered. Shurna took Vlad easily on the dribble drive in a way that I am not sure would have been the case with Brian Gilmore.
ReplyDeleteWe need a lot more seasoning on this team to play the kind of "D" I saw Drexel play against Louisville this weekend. Had nothing to do with offensive prowess as Drexel struggles to put the ball in the basket. Has everything to do with coming together as a team. So I am looking forward to seeing that.
Hendra would not "easily" start for Bucknell.
ReplyDelete