I think it's pretty clear to most of you that read this blog that I'm not a professional blogger. (Is there such a thing as a professional blogger?) No matter, I'm just a guy with an unhealthy love of AU basketball who loves to slather himself with blue body paint. I can't lie, friends and fans, sometimes I have trouble thinking about what I want to write in this paragon of basketball bloggerism here each night. But sometimes, JUST SOMETIMES, things fall in my lap where I'm like, "Hey, I could make an entry out of that."
TONIGHT IS JUST SUCH A NIGHT.
Courtesy of rare AU Basketball Central contributor the Earl of GWU, it has come to my attention that Rivals.com, a subsidiary of Yahoo.com, has been releasing it's top 347 rankings of NCAA Division I basketball teams. I want to share these rankings with you and then give you my commentary. Seems about right, right? Now, DISCLAIMER: THESE ARE ALL COURTESY OF http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketball I AM JUST GOING TO SHARE THEM WITH YOU HERE.
I'll do it in the order that they appear on Rivals' list.
171. Holy Cross
CONFERENCE: Patriot
BEST PLAYER: C Andrew Keister
QUICK TAKE: New coach Sean Kearney had been a Notre Dame assistant for the past nine seasons.
BUZZ: Is a second consecutive second-place finish in store for the Crusaders? Kearney will try to win a title in his first season at Holy Cross. It's possible if he can get more out of talented big man Keister (8.5 ppg, 6.3 rpg) and sophomore guard R.J. Evans (13.4 ppg). Three valuable seniors from last season's team are gone, though.
188. Navy
CONFERENCE: Patriot
BEST PLAYER: G Chris Harris
QUICK TAKE: The run-and-gun Midshipmen should be the best of the three service academies this season.
BUZZ: When it comes to entertainment value, there's no contest in the Patriot League. Navy and its fast-paced offense is a treat to watch. The question is whether it can be as much fun without Kaleo Kina and his 18 points per game. Harris (15.4 ppg) will get even more shots, and that's a good thing. Center Mark Veazey (7.9 ppg, 5.5 rpg) might be the key.
217. Army
CONFERENCE: Patriot
BEST PLAYER: G Cleveland Richard
QUICK TAKE: The Black Knights are stingy defensively, especially on the perimeter. But a lack of size hurts.
BUZZ: A fast, ball-hawking backcourt keys a defense that gives Army a chance to be a long-shot contender. Richard (12.0 ppg), Patriot League top defender Marcus Nelson and talented sophomore Julian Simmons make up a mean perimeter trio. The Black Knights need to be more consistent offensively, though, and a third shooter to complement Richard and Simmons would help.
248. Colgate
CONFERENCE: Patriot
BEST PLAYER: F Yaw Gyawu
QUICK TAKE: The Raiders have a chance to make some noise in the league; a top-three finish is possible.
BUZZ: Gyawu's is a name that will be mispronounced often in the next few years. He showed a lot of ability for Colgate as a freshman last season, scoring 10.2 points a game. Fellow frosh Nick Pascale has the potential to be a force at center, and Mike Venezia (10.8 ppg) and Ben Jonson (10.4 ppg) make up a solid backcourt. The Raiders bear watching.
255. Bucknell
CONFERENCE: Patriot
BEST PLAYER: F Patrick Behan
QUICK TAKE: The Bison were last in the Patriot League last season, but they appear to be slowly climbing back into the mix.
BUZZ: Expect a significant leap from last season's last-place showing. The young Bison lose Justin Castleberry, but Behan (13.8 ppg, 6.8 rpg) should be one of the league's top scorers. Sophomore guard Bryan Cohen (11.8 ppg) is terrific as well. He and wing forward G.W. Boon (9.8 ppg) combined for 104 3-pointers last season.
259. American
CONFERENCE: Patriot
BEST PLAYER: G Nick Hendra
QUICK TAKE: The Eagles have made back-to-back NCAA appearances. They lost way too much talent to get a third consecutive bid.
BUZZ: Coach Jeff Jones and American wowed college basketball by building a 14-point lead on Villanova in the first round of the NCAA tournament, only to fade late against a team that went on to the Final Four. Jones' program is strong, but this year could be trying without Garrison Carr, Brian Gilmore and Derrick Mercer and their 42.1 points per game. A plummet appears inevitable.
339. Lafayette
CONFERENCE: Patriot
BEST PLAYER: F Ryan Willen
QUICK TAKE: Remember the "Lafayette, we are here!" cry from World War I? Now, it's "We're Lafayette, and we're down here!"
BUZZ: Lafayette can score in bunches but has trouble limiting others from doing the same. Leading scorer Andrew Brown is gone, but G Jeff Kari (10.7 ppg) and the explosive 6-8 Willen (9.4 ppg) can produce more. Still, the only way the Leopards are getting out of the basement is by figuring a way to get some stops.
Now for those of you keeping score, that sets the ranking at:
1. Holy Cross
2. Navy
3. Army
4. Colgate
5. Bucknell
6. American
7. Lafayette
Now for those particularly astute readers out there, you'll realize that Lehigh is not listed or described here. That's because Rivals has not released the top 100. Either they left Lehigh off the list because they think Lehigh will be abominable (read: worse than NJIT? for real? for. real.) or Lehigh is in the top 100. One of those options makes me chuckle, the other makes me cringe. Since you were certainly astute enough to realize Lehigh wasn't here, you're definitely astute enough to figure out which facial expression I'm wearing.
The prospect of a top 100 ranked Lehigh isn't particularly pleasant, but I also think that the analysis given here is a little off. Do I think AU is going to struggle this year? Yes, I do. I'll go on record as saying it. But there are a lot of uncertainties about our beloved Eagles, too. Still, I think that we're still going to be able to challenge Bucknell and Colgate this year, especially given that I think that AU has one of the strongest recruiting classes (and ESPN/Rivals back me up on this) and that the Rivals rankings take into account neither the incoming classes nor the transfers, and I have already documented how big an impact I think Vlad the Impaler will have.
It's a mixed bag, friends and fans, and I think it will continue to be, to be frank with you. We can't know how the freshmen will perform until they get on the court, and we won't know if Vlad is going to be the force he's been in FIBA until he becomes eligible. Still, Rivals sets some preliminary analysis here, and that's always positive. I'll update you when they post where Lehigh is ranked, and we'll go from there.
Next up, what Rivals and ESPN say about our freshmen recruits. Stay tuned!
Pro deo et patria and GO EAGLES!
I don't consider myself an expert on the topic of college basketball. However, I do think that my opinions are more grounded than that of some twit at rivals.com who offers us rational purely based on one factor, turnover. (Doesn't that happen every 4 years in the NCAA?...hmmm) With that said, I have more faith in our team than rivals.com would let anyone to believe. I think that Nick and Vlad will help to sustain a great deal of the drive that sustained AU for the last two years. Do I think we will be the favorite? No. Do I think we will compete and be competitive? ABSO-POSITIV-ILOOSY.
ReplyDeleteDoes anyone else think that losing a coach is of any greater significance than what AU has to deal with?
P.S. Worse comes to worse, is Clawed eligible for the season?
Effectively analyzing any system requires you to look at the outputs AND the inputs. Given that the Patriot League is probably (with the loss of last year's Eagles) one of the weakest conferences in the nation, I understand why Rivals didn't take the time to examine the recruiting classes. It's just important for Eagles fans not to take what they see as gospel; there are other factors not being addressed that could make things turn out differently
ReplyDeleteJust putting it out there that Lehigh is definitely in the top 100 with Zahir Carrington and Marquise Hall coming back. Also I agree that we should have the talent combined with Jeff Jone's superior coaching to compete with Bucknell and Colgate (2 awful teams last year). In the end I think getting a home game in the PL tournament would be a successful season.
ReplyDeleteArmy in the top 4? That's probably a stretch at best.
ReplyDeleteI think something that should be looked at is what made Bucknell go from Top 25 squad and NCAA 9th seed to dead last in the Patriot League. Could it have been the coach turnover? If that's the case, maybe Holy Cra-- Cross is in for a rude awakening...
I'd wait for the Patriot League coaches poll to start taking anything too seriously, like Bill said considering how weak the PL tends to be on a national level, the best analysis will come from within the league.
Pro Deo et Aquilae (For God and Eagles)
Carrington and Hall will make a good duo, I wasn't seriously entertaining the idea that they weren't on the list at all. I'm dreading the Lehigh games already.
ReplyDeleteAnd Army in the top 4 of the PL isn't that much of a stretch, they were a better team than our first two games against them last year conveyed. As I'm sure you remember, had Gilmore not been clutch in the last two minutes of the PL semifinal, we would've been out on our asses thanks to Army. If they can preserve that defense and get even one more shooter, they have the potential to be a force.
need I remind everyone that going into the 2007-2008 season the Eagles were picked LAST by several sources entering the season. Don't count the Eagles out.
ReplyDeleteTrue point my anonymous friend. However, rivals.com last year had as the 65th best team
ReplyDelete1. Actually Rivals picks AU for 7th, so you might want to change that headline. At best, AU might get to 6th but that is unlikely unless Jolivette turns out to be better at the point than many expect.
ReplyDelete2. Top to bottom, the PL is much stronger than last year. HC, BU, CU, Army, Lafayette, and Lehigh are all stronger. (Bucknell will likely be much stronger.)
3. There were no polls in 2007-08 that picked AU 8th. Most had them 4th or 5th, with perhaps one placing them 6th. For example here is the PL coaches' poll from that year: http://www.patriotleague.org/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/101807aac.html