Can only the second conference game of the year be all that important? Can first place really be on the line when there are only three possible records any given League team could have after two games? Could ESPN actually care about a Patriot League game in early January?
Today, the answer to all of the an emphatic, resounding, red, white, and blue yes. At 7:30 PM in Bender Arena, our pre-season League favorite Eagles (11-5, 1-0 PL) go up against the #2 Bucknell Bison (10-7, 1-0 PL), and seek to keep it that way. The Bison are the team with the greatest chance to cancel our date with the Big Dance in March (and don't get me started on how Joe Lunardi replaced us with them in his Bracketology this week). The Bison have the highest RPI in the conference (83). The Bison have the signature win in the conference (Richmond). The Bison have the most balanced starting five in the conference. However, as of today there is one thing they will not have: a win in Bender Arena.
The importance of this game lies in its potential to be a preview of the Patriot League Championship Game - and if all goes well, that's in location, too. ESPN's weekly look at mid-major basketball even lists this as a game "not to miss", stating:
"I like 6-10 Mike Muscala's efficient inside game for the Bison. American counters with skilled 6-9 Vlad Moldoveanu in a Patriot League matchup of two of the better bigs in mid-major hoops."
The way ESPN sets this up to be a Vlad vs. Muscala showdown is reminiscent of this weekend's Vlad-CJ Backboard-Busting Shooting Explosion Extravaganza, as I like to call it at parties. As I mentioned yesterday, Vlad's on the hottest streak right now that any AU player has been on in recent memory. The truth is, though, that Bucknell's strength lies in how spread out its talent is among its starting five and the depth of its bench, instead of relying on one or two monster players.
Let's take a look at what we're up against. Foremost is the only other dominant frontcourt in the League, with sophomores Joe Willen and Mike Muscala at the 4 and 5 spots. These two have had their fair share of fame this year, including the buzzer beating shot that beat Richmond. With 6'11" Muscala averaging a team-best 14.1 ppg and 6.2 rpg, he is going to give Stephen Lumpkins all he can handle and then some. While experience will be on our frontcourt's side, the thought of both Muscala and Willen having two years of eligibility left is a bit scary - but let's focus on the present, shall we?
The talent curve barely dips as we move onto guards Bryan Cohen, Bryson Johnson, sixth man GW Boon, and even freshman Cameron Ayers. At the two and three spots, they all average between 6 and 10 ppg apiece, and any one of them could give us fits. While Troy and Charles may be more athletic than any one of them, they are only two bodies. Also, while only three players (Muscala, Johnson, and Boon) average double figures in points, there are five more players on the Bison's roster that average six or more. Needless to say, running defense on the Bison is going to be a challenge. They sport an inside-outside game that's tough to defend, as both Johnson and Cohen have been red-hot from beyond the arc recently, in addition to the strength of their frontcourt. This will be a much greater challenge to guard than with Lehigh, where McCollum was the biggest target.
Similarly, Bucknell will try to smother Vlad, whom they held to two points last year in Bender Arena. However, this may only serve to fuel Vlad's impaling rage. The other League team that held Vlad to a similarly low point total last season, Lehigh...well, you know how that went for them. While Bucknell returns its Vlad-limiting core from last season, it may not be enough to stop his ability to impale everything in sight this time around.
While the frontcourt will surely be a battle for the ages, our backcourt may be our only "achilles' heel", so to speak, in this game. While lately the ball-handling ability of the Munoz and Luptak combo platter has been commendable, and they've even developed into a decent scoring threat, they may not be able to stop Bison point guard Darryl Shazier. Although normally not a major scoring threat, he is quick and can both drive to the basket and hit shots from afar while pressured. He demonstrated this quite well in the Bison's PL opener at Navy, where Navy's man-to-man defense pressured Bucknell into consistently giving Shazier the shot, and he exploded for 28 points, most coming in the second half. Danny and Steve will have to hustle to keep up, and hold onto the ball as best they can. Shazier is certainly not the best point guard they've faced this season, but this will be a true test for them - and one I think they are up to.
So, how can we possibly contain this beastly slow-moving land mammal? For all I've been playing up the Bison, we're clearly not without great weapons of our own that give us the advantage. Again, we sport the League's leading scorer in Vlad (21.8 ppg), and leading rebounder in Lumpkins (8.1 ppg). Lumpkins has also been pitching in 12.6 ppg, which is good for second-best on both AU and Bucknell. Troy has been solid at 11.4 ppg, and if his hot hand gets, well, hot, then Bucknell's defenders will watch helplessly as they triple-team Vlad and they lose the Battle of Troy (that may have crossed the pun-line). Charles is about as solid a defender as we get in this conference, and he also has a knack for hitting shots at crucial times. Finally, of course, Hendra is the glue that has been holding all of this together, and despite his point total he ran pretty great defense on Lehigh's McCollum and gave Vlad tons of open looks. He can lock down just about any 2 or 3 on Bucknell's roster with ease.
Both the Eagles and the Bison are riding 4-game win streaks, with AU averaging 78.8 ppg over its streak, with an average margin of victory of 11.3 ppg. The last time we scored 70+ points in four consecutive games was 2003-2004, so we're certainly hot right now. We still stand behind the best scoring defense in the League as well, which will be crucial as always. Most importantly, we can't let the Bison dictate the pace of the game. Just because we've been on a hot streak doesn't mean we shouldn't play the slow, grind-it-out defense that is our hallmark. Hopefully, the familiar confines of Bender Arena should remind us of what it takes to win.
More important than Bender itself, however, is the greatest home court advantage in the Patriot League - the Blue Crew. If there is any way humanly possible for you to make it to this game, GO*! Put on your bluest shirt and your fiercest body paint. Scream until your voice is hoarse. Let Bucknell (and Joe Lunardi) know that it's the Red, White, and Blue that will be dancing out of the Patriot League this year! I'll see you there in Section 114!
*Drive/walk safely though, the roads will likely still be in less-than-great shape from last night's snowfall.
WHAT DO WE EAT? BISON MEAT!
Pro Deo Et Patria,
Josh
I'd just like to take the opportunity to welcome any Bucknell posters who may want to add some insight. Your comments are appreciated and the atmosphere will remain friendly even if you think we're absolutely dead wrong (it's been known to happen).
ReplyDeleteOnce Bucknell beat Richmond last Sunday, it was 100% certain that Lunardi would put Bucknell into his bracket and remove AU. The reason is that he has two criteria for who he picks in one bid leagues: (1) conference leader; and (2) higher RPI. AU was picked by him last week SOLELY due to a higher RPI as of Sunday morning (his cut-off). Bucknell was picked this week solely because of its now higher RPI.
ReplyDeleteAmerican can get back into Lunardi's bracket with a win tonight. However any time AU and BU are tied in the PL standings the rest of this year, then Bucknell is going to be in and AU out, since BU's ooc RPI is so much better. With equal PL records, Bucknell's overall RPI will always be better.
Two other factors from a Bucknell perspective:
ReplyDelete1. It is possible Hendra will have a big game, since he will be guarded by Bryson Johnson, who is not a good defender. My memory could be wrong but I'm pretty certain that Hendra was AU's leading scorer in the combined two games last year.
2. Some of Bucknell's best wins this year have been due to a high pct on threes, so a lot will depend on whether they are hot or cold from beyond the arc.
Forgot to mention one other thing. The comment about Bucknell "triple teaming" Vlad is not accurate if applied to last year's games. Cohen, especially in Game 2, played him straight up. Cohen is the PL's best defender at three positions, so a key part of this game will be if he can control Vlad again while keeping out of foul trouble.
ReplyDeleteThis game is also the Game! Of! The! Night! over at the Mid-Majority (scroll to the bottom): http://www.midmajority.com/p/1866
ReplyDeleteOh and for anyone who for some reason can't make it to Bender, you should be able to watch the game here: http://www.midmajority.com/pxl/93191
ReplyDeleteIt probably won't be a great feed, but it's better than nothing.
Bucknell laid off Romeo Garcia in the Navy game, and suckered him into a couple of bad shots near the end. He is an unlikely hero. That was mostly the difference between the two teams. We have to remember not to let Bucknell steer us into the shots they'd like us to take.
ReplyDeleteAgainst Lehigh, it looked like AU wanted to surprise them by rushing the ball up the court. It worked in terms of point production. But I still hope we eschew the early 3.