I was chatting on the phone with my dad last weekend about AU basketball. We talk about the Patriot League a lot, and he tries to stay abreast of what's going on in the standings. He saw the standings on Saturday and said to me, "Isn't it kind of odd that 6 of 8 teams are below .500 in the Patriot League?" I replied, "Not really. There's a lot of parity in the Patriot League. Everyone's bad."
I know, I know, I'm being cheeky and a touch melodramatic. (Easy on the keyboards, Bison fans (and bison137), I'm well aware that Bucknell has a top 100 RPI right now). But the fact remains (as it has all season) that outside of Bucknell (I'll tell you why I do include them despite their recent loss and don't include AU in a minute), the Patriot League has a ton of parity in this unelite 8.
For reference, let's take a look at the standings at the halfway mark.
Bucknell 6-1
American 5-2
Lehigh 3-4
Army 3-4
Lafayette 3-4
Navy 3-4
Holy Cross 3-4
Colgate 2-5
Now, why did I include Bucknell above despite their recent 20-point loss to Army? Well, it was their only loss, and everyone gets one freebie. But Darryl Shazier was also sick, and he's a big part of their offense. And Army got double-digit production out of five different players. We'll let it slide.
Now, why didn't I include AU at the top of the PL? While we are second, and a pretty respectable 5-2, I still don't think we're in the same class as Bucknell right now. Before their loss to Army, Bucknell was beating up on their PL opponents. Four of six PL wins by Bucknell were double digit victories. AU's biggest margin of victory in its 5 wins? 9 points. Over lowly Colgate. AU's two losses? Double digit blowouts, one of them against Bucknell in Bender.
Back to the Patriot League as a whole though, right now the League is ranked 25th of 33 by RealTimeRPI. KenPom is a little more forgiving, handing the PL the 23rd spot, but both of those would be substantially lower were it not for Bucknell (and to a lesser extent here, AU, leading the way). If something surprising should happen and AU or Bucknell not represent the Patriot League in the NCAA Tourney, don't be surprised to see the PL get handed a 16 seed. I think we can probably avoid a play-in game, but Bucknell is basically the only team with quality tournament level wins in the whole PL right now.
So what does the rest of the PL season hold for AU in particular? Well, KenPom expects us to lose three more times this season: at Lehigh and Bucknell and home against Army. RealTimeRPI expects us to lose all three of those games and also our final regular season game against Lafayette. Meanwhile, both of these sources expect Bucknell to win out.
There will be no easy games for AU from here on out and with how easily AU could be another of the 3-4 teams right now, we'll all have to cross our fingers that the Parity League doesn't draw AU down into its lose-on-any-given-night ways.
How do you think AU will finish out? Leave it in the comments. I think how we come out against Lehigh on Sunday will really be important to set the stage for the rest of the season.
Pro deo et patria and GO EAGLES!
Showing posts with label analysis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label analysis. Show all posts
Thursday, February 3, 2011
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
Rivals.com Thinks AU Will Finish AT LEAST SIXTH IN Patriot League
I think it's pretty clear to most of you that read this blog that I'm not a professional blogger. (Is there such a thing as a professional blogger?) No matter, I'm just a guy with an unhealthy love of AU basketball who loves to slather himself with blue body paint. I can't lie, friends and fans, sometimes I have trouble thinking about what I want to write in this paragon of basketball bloggerism here each night. But sometimes, JUST SOMETIMES, things fall in my lap where I'm like, "Hey, I could make an entry out of that."
TONIGHT IS JUST SUCH A NIGHT.
Courtesy of rare AU Basketball Central contributor the Earl of GWU, it has come to my attention that Rivals.com, a subsidiary of Yahoo.com, has been releasing it's top 347 rankings of NCAA Division I basketball teams. I want to share these rankings with you and then give you my commentary. Seems about right, right? Now, DISCLAIMER: THESE ARE ALL COURTESY OF http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketball I AM JUST GOING TO SHARE THEM WITH YOU HERE.
I'll do it in the order that they appear on Rivals' list.
171. Holy Cross
CONFERENCE: Patriot
BEST PLAYER: C Andrew Keister
QUICK TAKE: New coach Sean Kearney had been a Notre Dame assistant for the past nine seasons.
BUZZ: Is a second consecutive second-place finish in store for the Crusaders? Kearney will try to win a title in his first season at Holy Cross. It's possible if he can get more out of talented big man Keister (8.5 ppg, 6.3 rpg) and sophomore guard R.J. Evans (13.4 ppg). Three valuable seniors from last season's team are gone, though.
188. Navy
CONFERENCE: Patriot
BEST PLAYER: G Chris Harris
QUICK TAKE: The run-and-gun Midshipmen should be the best of the three service academies this season.
BUZZ: When it comes to entertainment value, there's no contest in the Patriot League. Navy and its fast-paced offense is a treat to watch. The question is whether it can be as much fun without Kaleo Kina and his 18 points per game. Harris (15.4 ppg) will get even more shots, and that's a good thing. Center Mark Veazey (7.9 ppg, 5.5 rpg) might be the key.
217. Army
CONFERENCE: Patriot
BEST PLAYER: G Cleveland Richard
QUICK TAKE: The Black Knights are stingy defensively, especially on the perimeter. But a lack of size hurts.
BUZZ: A fast, ball-hawking backcourt keys a defense that gives Army a chance to be a long-shot contender. Richard (12.0 ppg), Patriot League top defender Marcus Nelson and talented sophomore Julian Simmons make up a mean perimeter trio. The Black Knights need to be more consistent offensively, though, and a third shooter to complement Richard and Simmons would help.
248. Colgate
CONFERENCE: Patriot
BEST PLAYER: F Yaw Gyawu
QUICK TAKE: The Raiders have a chance to make some noise in the league; a top-three finish is possible.
BUZZ: Gyawu's is a name that will be mispronounced often in the next few years. He showed a lot of ability for Colgate as a freshman last season, scoring 10.2 points a game. Fellow frosh Nick Pascale has the potential to be a force at center, and Mike Venezia (10.8 ppg) and Ben Jonson (10.4 ppg) make up a solid backcourt. The Raiders bear watching.
255. Bucknell
CONFERENCE: Patriot
BEST PLAYER: F Patrick Behan
QUICK TAKE: The Bison were last in the Patriot League last season, but they appear to be slowly climbing back into the mix.
BUZZ: Expect a significant leap from last season's last-place showing. The young Bison lose Justin Castleberry, but Behan (13.8 ppg, 6.8 rpg) should be one of the league's top scorers. Sophomore guard Bryan Cohen (11.8 ppg) is terrific as well. He and wing forward G.W. Boon (9.8 ppg) combined for 104 3-pointers last season.
259. American
CONFERENCE: Patriot
BEST PLAYER: G Nick Hendra
QUICK TAKE: The Eagles have made back-to-back NCAA appearances. They lost way too much talent to get a third consecutive bid.
BUZZ: Coach Jeff Jones and American wowed college basketball by building a 14-point lead on Villanova in the first round of the NCAA tournament, only to fade late against a team that went on to the Final Four. Jones' program is strong, but this year could be trying without Garrison Carr, Brian Gilmore and Derrick Mercer and their 42.1 points per game. A plummet appears inevitable.
339. Lafayette
CONFERENCE: Patriot
BEST PLAYER: F Ryan Willen
QUICK TAKE: Remember the "Lafayette, we are here!" cry from World War I? Now, it's "We're Lafayette, and we're down here!"
BUZZ: Lafayette can score in bunches but has trouble limiting others from doing the same. Leading scorer Andrew Brown is gone, but G Jeff Kari (10.7 ppg) and the explosive 6-8 Willen (9.4 ppg) can produce more. Still, the only way the Leopards are getting out of the basement is by figuring a way to get some stops.
Now for those of you keeping score, that sets the ranking at:
1. Holy Cross
2. Navy
3. Army
4. Colgate
5. Bucknell
6. American
7. Lafayette
Now for those particularly astute readers out there, you'll realize that Lehigh is not listed or described here. That's because Rivals has not released the top 100. Either they left Lehigh off the list because they think Lehigh will be abominable (read: worse than NJIT? for real? for. real.) or Lehigh is in the top 100. One of those options makes me chuckle, the other makes me cringe. Since you were certainly astute enough to realize Lehigh wasn't here, you're definitely astute enough to figure out which facial expression I'm wearing.
The prospect of a top 100 ranked Lehigh isn't particularly pleasant, but I also think that the analysis given here is a little off. Do I think AU is going to struggle this year? Yes, I do. I'll go on record as saying it. But there are a lot of uncertainties about our beloved Eagles, too. Still, I think that we're still going to be able to challenge Bucknell and Colgate this year, especially given that I think that AU has one of the strongest recruiting classes (and ESPN/Rivals back me up on this) and that the Rivals rankings take into account neither the incoming classes nor the transfers, and I have already documented how big an impact I think Vlad the Impaler will have.
It's a mixed bag, friends and fans, and I think it will continue to be, to be frank with you. We can't know how the freshmen will perform until they get on the court, and we won't know if Vlad is going to be the force he's been in FIBA until he becomes eligible. Still, Rivals sets some preliminary analysis here, and that's always positive. I'll update you when they post where Lehigh is ranked, and we'll go from there.
Next up, what Rivals and ESPN say about our freshmen recruits. Stay tuned!
Pro deo et patria and GO EAGLES!
TONIGHT IS JUST SUCH A NIGHT.
Courtesy of rare AU Basketball Central contributor the Earl of GWU, it has come to my attention that Rivals.com, a subsidiary of Yahoo.com, has been releasing it's top 347 rankings of NCAA Division I basketball teams. I want to share these rankings with you and then give you my commentary. Seems about right, right? Now, DISCLAIMER: THESE ARE ALL COURTESY OF http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketball I AM JUST GOING TO SHARE THEM WITH YOU HERE.
I'll do it in the order that they appear on Rivals' list.
171. Holy Cross
CONFERENCE: Patriot
BEST PLAYER: C Andrew Keister
QUICK TAKE: New coach Sean Kearney had been a Notre Dame assistant for the past nine seasons.
BUZZ: Is a second consecutive second-place finish in store for the Crusaders? Kearney will try to win a title in his first season at Holy Cross. It's possible if he can get more out of talented big man Keister (8.5 ppg, 6.3 rpg) and sophomore guard R.J. Evans (13.4 ppg). Three valuable seniors from last season's team are gone, though.
188. Navy
CONFERENCE: Patriot
BEST PLAYER: G Chris Harris
QUICK TAKE: The run-and-gun Midshipmen should be the best of the three service academies this season.
BUZZ: When it comes to entertainment value, there's no contest in the Patriot League. Navy and its fast-paced offense is a treat to watch. The question is whether it can be as much fun without Kaleo Kina and his 18 points per game. Harris (15.4 ppg) will get even more shots, and that's a good thing. Center Mark Veazey (7.9 ppg, 5.5 rpg) might be the key.
217. Army
CONFERENCE: Patriot
BEST PLAYER: G Cleveland Richard
QUICK TAKE: The Black Knights are stingy defensively, especially on the perimeter. But a lack of size hurts.
BUZZ: A fast, ball-hawking backcourt keys a defense that gives Army a chance to be a long-shot contender. Richard (12.0 ppg), Patriot League top defender Marcus Nelson and talented sophomore Julian Simmons make up a mean perimeter trio. The Black Knights need to be more consistent offensively, though, and a third shooter to complement Richard and Simmons would help.
248. Colgate
CONFERENCE: Patriot
BEST PLAYER: F Yaw Gyawu
QUICK TAKE: The Raiders have a chance to make some noise in the league; a top-three finish is possible.
BUZZ: Gyawu's is a name that will be mispronounced often in the next few years. He showed a lot of ability for Colgate as a freshman last season, scoring 10.2 points a game. Fellow frosh Nick Pascale has the potential to be a force at center, and Mike Venezia (10.8 ppg) and Ben Jonson (10.4 ppg) make up a solid backcourt. The Raiders bear watching.
255. Bucknell
CONFERENCE: Patriot
BEST PLAYER: F Patrick Behan
QUICK TAKE: The Bison were last in the Patriot League last season, but they appear to be slowly climbing back into the mix.
BUZZ: Expect a significant leap from last season's last-place showing. The young Bison lose Justin Castleberry, but Behan (13.8 ppg, 6.8 rpg) should be one of the league's top scorers. Sophomore guard Bryan Cohen (11.8 ppg) is terrific as well. He and wing forward G.W. Boon (9.8 ppg) combined for 104 3-pointers last season.
259. American
CONFERENCE: Patriot
BEST PLAYER: G Nick Hendra
QUICK TAKE: The Eagles have made back-to-back NCAA appearances. They lost way too much talent to get a third consecutive bid.
BUZZ: Coach Jeff Jones and American wowed college basketball by building a 14-point lead on Villanova in the first round of the NCAA tournament, only to fade late against a team that went on to the Final Four. Jones' program is strong, but this year could be trying without Garrison Carr, Brian Gilmore and Derrick Mercer and their 42.1 points per game. A plummet appears inevitable.
339. Lafayette
CONFERENCE: Patriot
BEST PLAYER: F Ryan Willen
QUICK TAKE: Remember the "Lafayette, we are here!" cry from World War I? Now, it's "We're Lafayette, and we're down here!"
BUZZ: Lafayette can score in bunches but has trouble limiting others from doing the same. Leading scorer Andrew Brown is gone, but G Jeff Kari (10.7 ppg) and the explosive 6-8 Willen (9.4 ppg) can produce more. Still, the only way the Leopards are getting out of the basement is by figuring a way to get some stops.
Now for those of you keeping score, that sets the ranking at:
1. Holy Cross
2. Navy
3. Army
4. Colgate
5. Bucknell
6. American
7. Lafayette
Now for those particularly astute readers out there, you'll realize that Lehigh is not listed or described here. That's because Rivals has not released the top 100. Either they left Lehigh off the list because they think Lehigh will be abominable (read: worse than NJIT? for real? for. real.) or Lehigh is in the top 100. One of those options makes me chuckle, the other makes me cringe. Since you were certainly astute enough to realize Lehigh wasn't here, you're definitely astute enough to figure out which facial expression I'm wearing.
The prospect of a top 100 ranked Lehigh isn't particularly pleasant, but I also think that the analysis given here is a little off. Do I think AU is going to struggle this year? Yes, I do. I'll go on record as saying it. But there are a lot of uncertainties about our beloved Eagles, too. Still, I think that we're still going to be able to challenge Bucknell and Colgate this year, especially given that I think that AU has one of the strongest recruiting classes (and ESPN/Rivals back me up on this) and that the Rivals rankings take into account neither the incoming classes nor the transfers, and I have already documented how big an impact I think Vlad the Impaler will have.
It's a mixed bag, friends and fans, and I think it will continue to be, to be frank with you. We can't know how the freshmen will perform until they get on the court, and we won't know if Vlad is going to be the force he's been in FIBA until he becomes eligible. Still, Rivals sets some preliminary analysis here, and that's always positive. I'll update you when they post where Lehigh is ranked, and we'll go from there.
Next up, what Rivals and ESPN say about our freshmen recruits. Stay tuned!
Pro deo et patria and GO EAGLES!
Monday, August 24, 2009
No I'm Not Dead, I've Just Been Taking Stock of the Situation
So I bet you all thought that this blog was going to succumb to the usual "five posts and kick the bucket" wayside. Well. You're wrong. In the immortal words of Alex Trebek, "Oh no...no no...no." I would quote Jeff Jones to the same effect, but this is a family site for Christ's sake. In any event, I was looking at the Holy Cross 2009-10 basketball prospectus today. Why? Because AU doesn't have a 2009-10 basketball prospectus (nudge, nudge) yet, and I wanted to scope out the competition like any good fledgling basketball blog hosting guy.
So I figured I'd take a stab at seeing what we've got left after last season. Brace yourselves out there in AU basketball blog land, it ain't pretty. There's not a whole lot we can bank on. (As a short aside, this is in sharp contrast to Holy Cross who has 4/5 of their starters returning as well as 5 other letter winners. Oh dear sweet Clawed Z. Eagle.) Anyway, here's some quick hits on the stats and players we've got returning for the 2009-10 campaign.
- Out of 64.5 total points per game scored, 9 points per game are returning. 6.3 of these are Nick Hendra, who was last year's fourth leading scorer. This is a fact that actually surprises me. (In a good way, Nick!) I would've thought Nichols had a higher PPG just because of minutes. Shows what I know. That's a pretty grim statistic to start out with, but it becomes brighter when you consider that...
- Out of 200 possible minutes per game, the seven seniors that we graduated played an average of 169.2 minutes. If you figure that Hendra is going to get about 30 minutes a game (and that's lowballing it), his scoring should move up to around 10-12 PPG. Under the same assumption, Lumpkins will increase his production to the same levels. Make no bones about it, we will need at LEAST two other Eagles to step up their production mightily in order for us to be competitive, but the 169.2 minutes per game that are now available to the remaining Eagles should allow for that and more.
Now, let's be serious here for a moment. I've given you two statistics. Logic (and common practice) would dictate that two does not a blog post on basketball statistics make. Unlike Holy Cross, however, AU does not have the luxury of a veritable shit ton (that's a statistical term, look it up) of returning players. Any conclusions or calculations I made based on the fact that Lumpkins and Hendra are the only returns who saw any legitimate play time (sorry Luptak) would be irresponsible at best and completely worthless at worst.
Let's look at the bright side (which I will greatly expand on in my next post about where the strengths for the upcoming season are):
- Vlad Moldoveanu has the size and experience (20.3 PPG over 8 games in the 2004 FIBA) to be a force in the Patriot League.
- Our sophomores, who had the benefit of the seniors' experience and advice last year, should come back eager to prove themselves and with some tricks up their sleeves.
So you know what to look forward to, there's two upcoming posts from me:
- Expanding on the sophomores
- Breaking down the Holy Cross prospectus
I'm also going to look into what AU Athletics thinks the TV coverage will be for this season. Stay tuned, and be sure to leave your feedback!
Pro deo et patria and GO EAGLES!
So I figured I'd take a stab at seeing what we've got left after last season. Brace yourselves out there in AU basketball blog land, it ain't pretty. There's not a whole lot we can bank on. (As a short aside, this is in sharp contrast to Holy Cross who has 4/5 of their starters returning as well as 5 other letter winners. Oh dear sweet Clawed Z. Eagle.) Anyway, here's some quick hits on the stats and players we've got returning for the 2009-10 campaign.
- Out of 64.5 total points per game scored, 9 points per game are returning. 6.3 of these are Nick Hendra, who was last year's fourth leading scorer. This is a fact that actually surprises me. (In a good way, Nick!) I would've thought Nichols had a higher PPG just because of minutes. Shows what I know. That's a pretty grim statistic to start out with, but it becomes brighter when you consider that...
- Out of 200 possible minutes per game, the seven seniors that we graduated played an average of 169.2 minutes. If you figure that Hendra is going to get about 30 minutes a game (and that's lowballing it), his scoring should move up to around 10-12 PPG. Under the same assumption, Lumpkins will increase his production to the same levels. Make no bones about it, we will need at LEAST two other Eagles to step up their production mightily in order for us to be competitive, but the 169.2 minutes per game that are now available to the remaining Eagles should allow for that and more.
Now, let's be serious here for a moment. I've given you two statistics. Logic (and common practice) would dictate that two does not a blog post on basketball statistics make. Unlike Holy Cross, however, AU does not have the luxury of a veritable shit ton (that's a statistical term, look it up) of returning players. Any conclusions or calculations I made based on the fact that Lumpkins and Hendra are the only returns who saw any legitimate play time (sorry Luptak) would be irresponsible at best and completely worthless at worst.
Let's look at the bright side (which I will greatly expand on in my next post about where the strengths for the upcoming season are):
- Vlad Moldoveanu has the size and experience (20.3 PPG over 8 games in the 2004 FIBA) to be a force in the Patriot League.
- Our sophomores, who had the benefit of the seniors' experience and advice last year, should come back eager to prove themselves and with some tricks up their sleeves.
So you know what to look forward to, there's two upcoming posts from me:
- Expanding on the sophomores
- Breaking down the Holy Cross prospectus
I'm also going to look into what AU Athletics thinks the TV coverage will be for this season. Stay tuned, and be sure to leave your feedback!
Pro deo et patria and GO EAGLES!
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
Some Thoughts on the Non-Conference Schedule - Part 2
As promised, here are the rest of my thoughts on the non-conference schedule. Tomorrow I'm going to try to contact Bryce Simon and see if I can get to the bottom of this Mike Technow situation; it turns out he's not on the roster anymore, and I want to know what happened. As always, comment away!
Dec. 1 (Tue) - 7:30p - Howard (@AU) - Howard graduated leading scorer Eugene Myatt, but kept their next two highest scorers. The Bison then added a talented freshman class, including Tyreake Johnson, a 3-star recruit out of New York City, and Dadrian Collins from Rockville, MD. Given that the Eagles only beat the Bison by two last year (65-63, at Bender), we can expect that this will be a challenging match-up for our young team. Hopefully by this point in the season a firm starting five will have materialized; I don't think the lineup by committee approach is going to work for a team that's going to be as deep and experienced as Howard will be this year, no matter what their record last year (an unimpressive 8-23 (6-10) and 8th place finish in the Mid-Eastern Conference).
Dec. 5 (Sat) - TBA - Georgetown (AWAY) - The good news for the Eagles is that the Hoyas lost DaJuan Summers and Jessie Sapp to graduation last year; the two of them lit up the Eagles for 14 points a piece in a 73-49 rout at the Verizon Center. The (very) bad news for the Eagles is that 6'11 250 lb. animal (not in the cute cuddly sense of the drummer from the Muppets) Greg Monroe is returning, along with two of the Hoyas' other top four scorers. As if that weren't enough, the Hoyas have also reloaded with two four-star prospects. After the Hoyas played AU last year, their season quickly spiraled downward in a brutal Big East conference (finishing 7-11 in conference play); the legions of annoying "Hoya Saxa" fans didn't even see their team get to the NCAA Tourney. You can be sure when we meet up with them they'll be wanting to lay the hurt on us for our trip to the Big Dance.
Dec. 16 (Wed) - TBA - DePaul (AWAY) - If only this match-up could have come last season. The Blue Demons were completely outmatched in the Big East last year, as evidenced by their 0-18 conference record (9-24 overall). Still, DePaul wasn't talentless; they pulled off a shock upset of Cincinatti that kept the Bearcats out of the postseason. Would last year's Eagles have given DePaul a run for their money? I like to think so. The odds had to at least be even (according to commenter Elliot). The Blue Demons will be led by senior guard Will Walker and junior big man Mac Koshwal, both of whom averaged double-digits last year. I've got to imagine Koshwal giving the Eagles the same kind of fits that Georgetown's Greg Monroe does; at 6'10 255lb, Koshwal could have his way in the paint. Sophomore Riley Grafft, while 6'10, gives up 65 pounds to Koshwal, and Lumpkins is giving up both two inches and forty pounds. Brutal. (On a sidenote, I just realized that sophomore Mike Technow is no longer on the 2009-10 roster, someone remind me to check out what happened to that guy, as he had both height and a more muscular build than either Grafft or Lumpkins.)
Dec. 19 - 2:00p - UMBC - (@AU) - The Eagles had no problem knocking off the Retrievers last year on their home floor 74-61, and the chances are pretty good that the same could happen this year when the Retrievers wag their way into Bender Arena. After losing top scorers Darryl Proctor and Jay Greene (who accounted for roughly 32 ppg last year), UMBC will be looking for some new leaders to step up. Sophomore guard Chauncey Gilliam at 6'5 230 may be just that scorer. Tall enough to give any of our guards fits, the Eagles will have to find some kind of answer to him to pull out the W.
Dec. 21 (Mon) - 5:00p - Penn State (AWAY) - Any team that pulls out ten wins in the Big Ten most years has legitimate talent. Penn State is no different, finishing 27-11 (10-8) and 4th in the Big East. After beating Illinois twice, Purdue once, and Michigan State once, Penn State marched through the postseason and won the NIT. Especially given that we're headed up to State College, I think our Eagles are going to get their feathers plucked. There's not much else to say about this game, sadly, except that it will be a good experience for our guys to see the well-oiled Nittany Lion machine in action.
Dec. 28 (Mon) - TBA - Florida (AWAY) - Out of the frying pan and into the fire. Billy Donovan's gators won back to back national championships in 2006 and 2007. Even after losing 17.2 ppg guard Nick Calathes, Florida will return its other four starters. Again, this will be a good experience for our young Eagles, but Jeff Jones had better make sure he finds some way to keep their morale up after what seems like an inevitable blowout.
Jan. 2 (Sat) - 1:00p - Brown (AWAY) - The Eagles might've conquered Brown (in a boring ho-hum game during winter break) last year, but the Bears might be able to exact their revenge this year. Returning their three top scorers and a team with a lot of experience, the Bears should be able to improve on their 9-19 (3-11) record. The Eagles' only salvation at this point in the season would be the emergence of a previously unexpected dominant player or a team playing fundamental teamwork-oriented ball.
Jan. 4 (Mon) - 7:00p - Columbia (AWAY) - Hopefully the Eagles will be able to end their non-conference schedule on a high note. Though Columbia had a surprisingly good season last year, they still finished below .500 overall. They lost number two scorer Jason Miller. If nothing else, this should be a competitive battle. Too bad we'll all be watching it on Eagle Vision, if at all.
Annnd I'm out for the night. Hopefully I'll have some news to report for you tomorrow.
Pro deo et patria and GO EAGLES!
Dec. 1 (Tue) - 7:30p - Howard (@AU) - Howard graduated leading scorer Eugene Myatt, but kept their next two highest scorers. The Bison then added a talented freshman class, including Tyreake Johnson, a 3-star recruit out of New York City, and Dadrian Collins from Rockville, MD. Given that the Eagles only beat the Bison by two last year (65-63, at Bender), we can expect that this will be a challenging match-up for our young team. Hopefully by this point in the season a firm starting five will have materialized; I don't think the lineup by committee approach is going to work for a team that's going to be as deep and experienced as Howard will be this year, no matter what their record last year (an unimpressive 8-23 (6-10) and 8th place finish in the Mid-Eastern Conference).
Dec. 5 (Sat) - TBA - Georgetown (AWAY) - The good news for the Eagles is that the Hoyas lost DaJuan Summers and Jessie Sapp to graduation last year; the two of them lit up the Eagles for 14 points a piece in a 73-49 rout at the Verizon Center. The (very) bad news for the Eagles is that 6'11 250 lb. animal (not in the cute cuddly sense of the drummer from the Muppets) Greg Monroe is returning, along with two of the Hoyas' other top four scorers. As if that weren't enough, the Hoyas have also reloaded with two four-star prospects. After the Hoyas played AU last year, their season quickly spiraled downward in a brutal Big East conference (finishing 7-11 in conference play); the legions of annoying "Hoya Saxa" fans didn't even see their team get to the NCAA Tourney. You can be sure when we meet up with them they'll be wanting to lay the hurt on us for our trip to the Big Dance.
Dec. 16 (Wed) - TBA - DePaul (AWAY) - If only this match-up could have come last season. The Blue Demons were completely outmatched in the Big East last year, as evidenced by their 0-18 conference record (9-24 overall). Still, DePaul wasn't talentless; they pulled off a shock upset of Cincinatti that kept the Bearcats out of the postseason. Would last year's Eagles have given DePaul a run for their money? I like to think so. The odds had to at least be even (according to commenter Elliot). The Blue Demons will be led by senior guard Will Walker and junior big man Mac Koshwal, both of whom averaged double-digits last year. I've got to imagine Koshwal giving the Eagles the same kind of fits that Georgetown's Greg Monroe does; at 6'10 255lb, Koshwal could have his way in the paint. Sophomore Riley Grafft, while 6'10, gives up 65 pounds to Koshwal, and Lumpkins is giving up both two inches and forty pounds. Brutal. (On a sidenote, I just realized that sophomore Mike Technow is no longer on the 2009-10 roster, someone remind me to check out what happened to that guy, as he had both height and a more muscular build than either Grafft or Lumpkins.)
Dec. 19 - 2:00p - UMBC - (@AU) - The Eagles had no problem knocking off the Retrievers last year on their home floor 74-61, and the chances are pretty good that the same could happen this year when the Retrievers wag their way into Bender Arena. After losing top scorers Darryl Proctor and Jay Greene (who accounted for roughly 32 ppg last year), UMBC will be looking for some new leaders to step up. Sophomore guard Chauncey Gilliam at 6'5 230 may be just that scorer. Tall enough to give any of our guards fits, the Eagles will have to find some kind of answer to him to pull out the W.
Dec. 21 (Mon) - 5:00p - Penn State (AWAY) - Any team that pulls out ten wins in the Big Ten most years has legitimate talent. Penn State is no different, finishing 27-11 (10-8) and 4th in the Big East. After beating Illinois twice, Purdue once, and Michigan State once, Penn State marched through the postseason and won the NIT. Especially given that we're headed up to State College, I think our Eagles are going to get their feathers plucked. There's not much else to say about this game, sadly, except that it will be a good experience for our guys to see the well-oiled Nittany Lion machine in action.
Dec. 28 (Mon) - TBA - Florida (AWAY) - Out of the frying pan and into the fire. Billy Donovan's gators won back to back national championships in 2006 and 2007. Even after losing 17.2 ppg guard Nick Calathes, Florida will return its other four starters. Again, this will be a good experience for our young Eagles, but Jeff Jones had better make sure he finds some way to keep their morale up after what seems like an inevitable blowout.
Jan. 2 (Sat) - 1:00p - Brown (AWAY) - The Eagles might've conquered Brown (in a boring ho-hum game during winter break) last year, but the Bears might be able to exact their revenge this year. Returning their three top scorers and a team with a lot of experience, the Bears should be able to improve on their 9-19 (3-11) record. The Eagles' only salvation at this point in the season would be the emergence of a previously unexpected dominant player or a team playing fundamental teamwork-oriented ball.
Jan. 4 (Mon) - 7:00p - Columbia (AWAY) - Hopefully the Eagles will be able to end their non-conference schedule on a high note. Though Columbia had a surprisingly good season last year, they still finished below .500 overall. They lost number two scorer Jason Miller. If nothing else, this should be a competitive battle. Too bad we'll all be watching it on Eagle Vision, if at all.
Annnd I'm out for the night. Hopefully I'll have some news to report for you tomorrow.
Pro deo et patria and GO EAGLES!
Monday, August 10, 2009
Some Thoughts on the Non-Conference Schedule - Part 1
Eagles fans, today is a beautiful day. To my delusional and basketball-starved mind, today is the first day of AU basketball season. Why? Because that road map to a third consecutive Patriot League title and NCAA Tournament berth was released today: the 2009-10 season schedule. I'm going to take some time and offer some preliminary thoughts and stats on just the non-conference portion of the schedule (in-depth analysis of the Patriot League will follow...when I get a chance to do some more research). Before I look at a game-by-game basis, I have some general thoughts on the non-conference schedule:
- It's ambitious. It's possible Jeff Jones didn't get the memo that he lost all five senior starters to graduation last year. And you know what? I'm okay with that. We've got a real young team coming in (ten out of twelve players are freshmen or sophomores). So what did Coach Jones do? He went out and scheduled not one, but two Big East teams (Georgetown and DePaul), an SEC team that won back-to-back national championships in 2006 and 2007 (Florida), and a Big 10 team that managed to pull off ten wins in what was arguably the best conference last year (Penn State). That's a signal to this team that Coach Jones fully expects them to be able to compete. He's getting out and getting them great experience early so that our young team will be fully tested by the time conference play opens up. Is it possible our Eagles will have PTSD by the end of non-conference play? Entirely possible. But it'll also be a confidence booster when the team gets to Patriot League play and see that Colgate and Lafayette are nothing like the major conference powerhouses they'll already have played.
- It's home game heavy. Continuing on the trend of things I'm a-okay with, the schedule this year has five more home games this season than last. Granted two of these games are exhibition games against Randolph-Macon and Catholic, but to this blue-chested fan, a chance to stand in section 115 for a few hours is a chance to stand in section 115 for a few hours. This is a move that should help the team (playing at home rarely hurts, after all). Bender Arena has become one of the best (if not the best) home court advantages in the Patriot League in recent years (13-1 last season, 24-5 over the past two season), and the Blue Crew should help keep the Eagles in the game in what will be a number of close non-conference games (Howard, UMBC, Mt. St. Mary's, Fairfield)
- It's going to be a hell of a November. Forget about easing into the season, we'll be hitting the ground running and instantly moving into a sprint. From November 16 to November 28 (12 days) we've got 6 games. For you SISers out there, that averages out to a game every other day. And these aren't gimmes by any stretch of the imagination. Mt. St. Mary's stole our lunch and ate it in front of us last year last November, handing us our only home loss, and Fairfield eked out an eight point victory on their home court. Luckily, interspersed in these games are some definitely winnable match-ups for the Eagles, which leads me to the fourth general point...
- It's important to keep in mind that this year is not last year. Does this year's team have definite talent? Yes (and in an upcoming entry, I'll detail all of it). With more size than past years' teams and a sophomore class that had a whole year to jell together, it is entirely possible we're going to have some surprises early on; we haven't seen a lot out of most of the sophomores (except for Lumpkins, who will have a lot on his shoulders this year). But as of right now, we can't assume that there's a Garrison Carr-esque player who is going to come out right away and be able to nail five threes in two minutes and erase deficits or mental mistakes. Still, there are some definitely winnable games for us, and without further adieu, let's get into it.
Nov. 3 (Tue) - 7:30p - Randolph-Macon (@AU) - Division III Randolph-Macon finished the 2008 season with a 20-6 mark and 14-2 in the Old Dominion Athletic Conference. While it's hard to call R-M a D3 powerhouse (mostly because the existence of such is really oxymoronic), AU would be foolish to look past this team for its D3 status. The Yellow Jackets are coming in with a similarly young team, sporting only two seniors and two juniors. Not a bad pick-up for the schedule, and much better than the leading-lambs-to-slaughter type drubbing we opened up with last year against Oklahoma.
Nov. 8 (Sun) - 4:30p - Catholic (@AU) - Our neighbors on the Red Line finished 8-6 in the D3 Landmark Conference last year and 18-10 overall. Another young team, the Cardinals only have two seniors and a junior, and I have to give the edge to AU here because of the caliber of teams that Hendra, Luptak, and the sophomores got a glimpse at last year.
Nov. 13 (Fri) - 7:00p - St. Francis (Pa.) (AWAY) - Last year, the Eagles got their first home win of the year against St. Francis (PA) in a 67-46 rout in Bender Arena. The Red Flash, who struggled mightily last season, finished 6-23 (3-15) and 11th in the Northeast Conference. The Eagles shouldn't expect to walk all over the Red Flash again this year, because those same juniors and seniors will no doubt remember the 28 point performance Garrison put up against them last year.
Nov. 16 (Mon) - 7:30p - Albany (N.Y.) (@AU) - The Eagles match up against the Great Danes for their regular season home opener. Albany, who went 15-16 (6-10) and finished 7th in the America East should be an even match-up. The Great Danes return Will Harris, one of their top scorers from a year ago, and it'll be up to Lumpkins to try to contain him in the post.
Nov. 18 (Wed) - 7:30p - Mt. St. Mary's (@AU) - As mentioned above, the Mount really kicked in our teeth last year in our only home loss. The Eagles will really have to dig in deep if they want to reverse their fortunes this year, especially since Mt. St. Mary's returns its top four scorers from a year ago. Not looking forward to this game, folks. I'll bring the peroxide because there's a good chance our guys are going to get beat up.
Nov. 21 (Sat) - 12:00p - Fla. Atlantic (@AU) - Luckily, the Eagles should be able to rebound (in multiple senses) against the Florida Atlantic Owls. After a miserable campaign last season that saw FAU go 6-26 (2-16) and 6th in the Sun Belt East, the Owls might not prove much better this year after only returning one of their top four scorers in Shavar Richardson (11.8 ppg). Still, Mike Jarvis is a coach certainly to be respected, and he might have some tricks up his sleeve for this bird-on-bird battle.
Nov. 23 (Mon) - 7:30p - Fairfield (@AU) - The Fairfield Stags pulled off a victory in Connecticut last year thanks to ice cold three-point shooting in the second half from the Eagles (2-12). After graduating one of their top two scorers, this should be a fairly even match-up between two fairly young teams. It remains to be seen if the Stags will have another scorer step up this season, but this is definitely a game I'll look forward to watching.
Nov. 25 (Wed) - 7:30p - Manhattan (@AU) - The Jaspers (by the way, what the hell is a Jasper?) finished 16-14 (9-9 MAAC), but fell to AU 60-48 on their home court. The Eagles will look to make it two in a row against Manhattan. The Jaspers(??) lost two of their top three scorers to graduation, but they have a young crop of juniors who no doubt will try to step up and take advantage some of that increased playing time.
Nov. 28 (Sat) - 2:00p - Maryland Eastern Shore (AWAY) - Hopefully the team will get to stop at Kent Narrows to get some crab while they're out here. MD - Eastern Shore finished 7-23 (3-13) and placed 11th in a weak Mid-Eastern Conference. Unless something goes horribly wrong here, the Eagles should look forward to some she-crab victory soup after this match-up.
At this point, it's getting late, and this is already a huge entry, so I'm going to call it a night for...tonight and finish up tomorrow. That's when the meat of the non-conference schedule is, and you can bet I'll devote a lot of time to the Florida, Penn State, Georgetown, and DePaul match-ups. For tonight, I hope this hasn't run too long for all of you. Let me know if you have questions, comments, or feedback!
Until tomorrow...
Pro deo et patria and GO EAGLES!
- It's ambitious. It's possible Jeff Jones didn't get the memo that he lost all five senior starters to graduation last year. And you know what? I'm okay with that. We've got a real young team coming in (ten out of twelve players are freshmen or sophomores). So what did Coach Jones do? He went out and scheduled not one, but two Big East teams (Georgetown and DePaul), an SEC team that won back-to-back national championships in 2006 and 2007 (Florida), and a Big 10 team that managed to pull off ten wins in what was arguably the best conference last year (Penn State). That's a signal to this team that Coach Jones fully expects them to be able to compete. He's getting out and getting them great experience early so that our young team will be fully tested by the time conference play opens up. Is it possible our Eagles will have PTSD by the end of non-conference play? Entirely possible. But it'll also be a confidence booster when the team gets to Patriot League play and see that Colgate and Lafayette are nothing like the major conference powerhouses they'll already have played.
- It's home game heavy. Continuing on the trend of things I'm a-okay with, the schedule this year has five more home games this season than last. Granted two of these games are exhibition games against Randolph-Macon and Catholic, but to this blue-chested fan, a chance to stand in section 115 for a few hours is a chance to stand in section 115 for a few hours. This is a move that should help the team (playing at home rarely hurts, after all). Bender Arena has become one of the best (if not the best) home court advantages in the Patriot League in recent years (13-1 last season, 24-5 over the past two season), and the Blue Crew should help keep the Eagles in the game in what will be a number of close non-conference games (Howard, UMBC, Mt. St. Mary's, Fairfield)
- It's going to be a hell of a November. Forget about easing into the season, we'll be hitting the ground running and instantly moving into a sprint. From November 16 to November 28 (12 days) we've got 6 games. For you SISers out there, that averages out to a game every other day. And these aren't gimmes by any stretch of the imagination. Mt. St. Mary's stole our lunch and ate it in front of us last year last November, handing us our only home loss, and Fairfield eked out an eight point victory on their home court. Luckily, interspersed in these games are some definitely winnable match-ups for the Eagles, which leads me to the fourth general point...
- It's important to keep in mind that this year is not last year. Does this year's team have definite talent? Yes (and in an upcoming entry, I'll detail all of it). With more size than past years' teams and a sophomore class that had a whole year to jell together, it is entirely possible we're going to have some surprises early on; we haven't seen a lot out of most of the sophomores (except for Lumpkins, who will have a lot on his shoulders this year). But as of right now, we can't assume that there's a Garrison Carr-esque player who is going to come out right away and be able to nail five threes in two minutes and erase deficits or mental mistakes. Still, there are some definitely winnable games for us, and without further adieu, let's get into it.
Nov. 3 (Tue) - 7:30p - Randolph-Macon (@AU) - Division III Randolph-Macon finished the 2008 season with a 20-6 mark and 14-2 in the Old Dominion Athletic Conference. While it's hard to call R-M a D3 powerhouse (mostly because the existence of such is really oxymoronic), AU would be foolish to look past this team for its D3 status. The Yellow Jackets are coming in with a similarly young team, sporting only two seniors and two juniors. Not a bad pick-up for the schedule, and much better than the leading-lambs-to-slaughter type drubbing we opened up with last year against Oklahoma.
Nov. 8 (Sun) - 4:30p - Catholic (@AU) - Our neighbors on the Red Line finished 8-6 in the D3 Landmark Conference last year and 18-10 overall. Another young team, the Cardinals only have two seniors and a junior, and I have to give the edge to AU here because of the caliber of teams that Hendra, Luptak, and the sophomores got a glimpse at last year.
Nov. 13 (Fri) - 7:00p - St. Francis (Pa.) (AWAY) - Last year, the Eagles got their first home win of the year against St. Francis (PA) in a 67-46 rout in Bender Arena. The Red Flash, who struggled mightily last season, finished 6-23 (3-15) and 11th in the Northeast Conference. The Eagles shouldn't expect to walk all over the Red Flash again this year, because those same juniors and seniors will no doubt remember the 28 point performance Garrison put up against them last year.
Nov. 16 (Mon) - 7:30p - Albany (N.Y.) (@AU) - The Eagles match up against the Great Danes for their regular season home opener. Albany, who went 15-16 (6-10) and finished 7th in the America East should be an even match-up. The Great Danes return Will Harris, one of their top scorers from a year ago, and it'll be up to Lumpkins to try to contain him in the post.
Nov. 18 (Wed) - 7:30p - Mt. St. Mary's (@AU) - As mentioned above, the Mount really kicked in our teeth last year in our only home loss. The Eagles will really have to dig in deep if they want to reverse their fortunes this year, especially since Mt. St. Mary's returns its top four scorers from a year ago. Not looking forward to this game, folks. I'll bring the peroxide because there's a good chance our guys are going to get beat up.
Nov. 21 (Sat) - 12:00p - Fla. Atlantic (@AU) - Luckily, the Eagles should be able to rebound (in multiple senses) against the Florida Atlantic Owls. After a miserable campaign last season that saw FAU go 6-26 (2-16) and 6th in the Sun Belt East, the Owls might not prove much better this year after only returning one of their top four scorers in Shavar Richardson (11.8 ppg). Still, Mike Jarvis is a coach certainly to be respected, and he might have some tricks up his sleeve for this bird-on-bird battle.
Nov. 23 (Mon) - 7:30p - Fairfield (@AU) - The Fairfield Stags pulled off a victory in Connecticut last year thanks to ice cold three-point shooting in the second half from the Eagles (2-12). After graduating one of their top two scorers, this should be a fairly even match-up between two fairly young teams. It remains to be seen if the Stags will have another scorer step up this season, but this is definitely a game I'll look forward to watching.
Nov. 25 (Wed) - 7:30p - Manhattan (@AU) - The Jaspers (by the way, what the hell is a Jasper?) finished 16-14 (9-9 MAAC), but fell to AU 60-48 on their home court. The Eagles will look to make it two in a row against Manhattan. The Jaspers(??) lost two of their top three scorers to graduation, but they have a young crop of juniors who no doubt will try to step up and take advantage some of that increased playing time.
Nov. 28 (Sat) - 2:00p - Maryland Eastern Shore (AWAY) - Hopefully the team will get to stop at Kent Narrows to get some crab while they're out here. MD - Eastern Shore finished 7-23 (3-13) and placed 11th in a weak Mid-Eastern Conference. Unless something goes horribly wrong here, the Eagles should look forward to some she-crab victory soup after this match-up.
At this point, it's getting late, and this is already a huge entry, so I'm going to call it a night for...tonight and finish up tomorrow. That's when the meat of the non-conference schedule is, and you can bet I'll devote a lot of time to the Florida, Penn State, Georgetown, and DePaul match-ups. For tonight, I hope this hasn't run too long for all of you. Let me know if you have questions, comments, or feedback!
Until tomorrow...
Pro deo et patria and GO EAGLES!
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