Goin' Huntin' for Hill Pigeons

Two o'clock this afternoon will mark an important turning point in our season. For all that out-of-conference games matter, they do little to determine whether we'll be dancing in March. That's determined by our play against our Patriot League foes, which begins today. Per usual, our first game of the season is against the Mountain Hawks (or as we like to say, Hill Pigeons) of Lehigh, and while I have no doubt that myself and many of you will be sharing a victory dance in Section 114 this afternoon, the reality is that it's anyone's game.

The Eagles (10-5) and the defending champion Mountain Hawks (9-6) sport the top two out-of-conference records in the League. In fact, Lehigh sported an identical 9-6 record last season, as we tried to put our 3-12 debacle behind us with a trip to Bethlehem, PA. Sadly, that game ended in a 78-67 loss, and we ultimately dropped two more games to the Pigeons, with a 77-65 loss at home and a 79-57 loss in the Patriot League Semifinals at Lehigh to put an end to a dismal season.

Needless to say, this is not last season. The Sweet, Sweet Revenge Tour of 2010 saw great success, with  victories over a number of tough (and not-so-tough) teams that handed our feathers to us last season. A win over the Mountain Hawks would undoubtedly be the crowning achievement of the Tour, avenging three losses in a single season by an average margin of 15 ppg. Can we do it? Has a year of experience, personnel additions, and an appetite for revenge given us what we need to not just climb the Mountain those Hawks live upon, but blow it to pieces? If we play our cards right, it sure does.

One of the weakest links in our tear-inducing 22 point semifinal loss to Lehigh last season was Vlad the Impaler's untimely cold streak that happened to coincide with the Patriot League Tournament. Sure, Stephen Lumpkins stepped up, averaging over 20 ppg for a three-game span and absolutely dominating the post, but it wasn't enough to overcome the strong frontcourt play of Lehigh's Marquis Hall, backed up by Rookie of the Year, Player of the Year, and the player with the largest target painted on his back in the League, CJ McCollum. 

Enough waxing nostalgic, let's cut to the chase. Recently, Vlad's been on fire. It is a holy Romanian fire that can only be quenched by the blood of his adversaries, and CJ McCollum has to be #1 on his list (now that Randolph-Macon is squarely put away). Vlad (20.6 ppg) and CJ (20.5 ppg) are the #1 and #2 scorers in the Patriot League, and take the 3rd and 6th most shots for their teams respectively in the entire NCAA. They've been trading the 1 and 2 spots all season, each putting up impressive 30+ point performances multiple times. It will be up to the rest of their teams to stop the other, as Vlad will have trouble defending the quicker McCollum, while he will have trouble matching Vlad's reach. If either of these players comes out cold today, it could cost their team the game. 

Speaking of reach, however, McCollum also leads his team in rebounds with 6.9 rpg, good for third in the Patriot League. Our star power here is brought by Stephen Lumpkins, who tops McCollum with an incredible 8 rpg, leading the League in this critical statistic as well. Lehigh has lost essential frontcourt cogs Zahir Carrington and Marquis Hall to graduation, which is to our advantage as both of these players gave Lumpkins fits last season and allowed McCollum to do damage at will. Outside of sophomore big man Gabe Knutson, Lehigh has little answer to the size and athleticism of our frontcourt this season, which might give us the advantage.

This advantage, however, hinges on the play of our backcourt. The tried-and-true Danny and Steve point guard duo isn't the biggest scoring threat on the court, as they combine to average 6 ppg, and often show hesitance to drive inside (although recently Danny has become more comfortable with this). However, in the past few games they've avoided turning the ball over almost entirely, displaying incredible ball-handling skills that have allowed our real offensive weapons to fire on all cylinders. In the past 15 games, Danny and Steve have turned the ball over 31 times and dished out 73 assists, good for a 2.35 assist-to-turnover ratio. That's solid, and has clearly improved as the season progresses. Their ball handling will be key, as on defense they likely won't be able to stop Lehigh's speedy backcourt. Charles Hinkle will have to prove he is the defensive stopper that he's been touted as, and Troy will have to put his raw athleticism to good use to guard McCollum. However if we can keep the ball on our possessions and keep the game at our pace, which means not throwing up threes with reckless abandon, we should come out on top.

Speaking of threes, Troy has been our other spark on the offensive end this season. He's come off of his recent road slump, putting up 19 points against Brown on Monday. For the season, he's shot over 40% from beyond the arc, and if he can keep up his hot streak in the friendly confines of his home court, it may be too much for the Hawks to handle. At the same time, however, he can't shoot recklessly. Lehigh is a quick, high-scoring team that will take control early if we are popping up treys with 20 seconds left on the clock, and that sort of rhythm is not where we want to be. We lead the Patriot League in scoring defense, and have held far more potent offenses far below their season averages, so I am confident we can continue.

We've faced a number of common opponents as well. Fordham, whom we recently dismantled in the first round of the Cable Car Classic, defeated Lehigh on their home court 74-67. Our first  game (and win) of the season, St. Francis (PA) finished their Patriot League tour in Lehigh's Stabler Arena and walked away with a 79-61 defeat. That's a 1-1 record against teams we've defeated, although that means little with the intensity Patriot League contests bring. Right now both AU and Lehigh are coming off of three-game win streaks to conclude out-of-conference play.

You may have noticed that up to this point, Lehigh's roleplayers outside of McCollum have been mentioned only sparingly. McCollum's supporting cast, however, is nothing to  look lightly upon. Guard Michael Ojo just put up 33 points in a victory over NJIT, and however sordid NJIT may be (they only recently moved to Division 1), that's an impressive figure. Ojo averages 14 ppg, and he is joined in the double figure category by 6'9" sophomore forward Gabe Knutson with 11.9 ppg. Freshman guard Mackey McKnight has been a very solid addition to the Pigeon's roster this season, averaging 8.7 ppg, and may be a contender for the League Rookie of the Year. The game-changer in most of these matchups may end up being experience, with most of Lehigh's core players being freshmen or sophomores. 

Our experienced squad, on the other hand, has a chip on their shoulder from last season. Recently, Coach Jones has lamented about a lack of the competitive edge that drove the 08-09 team to victory. I have no doubt that playing Lehigh will provide that spark. Losing to them three times last year, as a freshman McCollum smiled into a TV camera, waved three fingers in the air, and mouthed "no threepeat", was a blow that they know they can overcome now. If you asked me (and, ultimately, Troy Brewer in the press conference), the slow start on Monday was due to us overlooking Brown and looking ahead instead of at the moment. This game is what we were looking ahead to. This is the moment.

BEAT LEHIGH!

Pro Deo Et Patria,

Josh

NOTES: Tipoff is at 2 PM in Bender Arena. Blue Crew, if you can come, our Eagles need all the support they can get, and the best home court advantage in the Patriot League will be there to give it to them. If you can't, Bill will be liveblogging right from the sidelines, so join us for some virtual action. GO EAGLES!