One of my favorite college hoops websites is definitely The Mid Majority. Like us, they don't take a break just because it's the summer. In fact, they have decided to tackle the ambitious project of ranking the top 100 mid-major programs since they first appeared on the web six seasons ago (the 2004-05 season). I like this ranking for a number of reasons. First, it's very participatory - they asked their readers what the most important metrics to use were, and their method is very transparent. Second, it's comprehensive - this is six seasons of data being captured, so it encompasses most of the pendulum that many mid-majors swing on between success and those inevitable "rebuilding years." Third - it uses TMM's useful "Red Line" definition of mid-majors, so that those pesky power conference teams don't ruin things (and excludes Gonzaga, Memphis, and Xavier for good measure). TMM will be announcing one team a day, descending from 100, and they've already been through 13 (without any Patriot League teams showing up). So here's the methodology:
Each team is awarded 5 points for an NCAA Tournament win, 5 for an NCAA Tournament appearance, 4 for an upset of a team above the "Red Line" (check link above if you're unsure of what that is), 4 points for a regular season championship, 3 points for leading a conference in offensive or defensive efficiency, 3 points for a 20-win season, 3 points for a NIT win, 2 for a NIT appearance, 2 for leading in PPG or RPG in a conference, 2 for each NBA draft pick, 1 for any other post-season appearance (CBI, CIT, etc.), and then the average RPI (* .01) is added in as well.
Sound confusing? Let's break down where we stand. First, TMM was gracious enough to rank each of the 25 mid-major conferences. The Patriot League comes in a solid 13th, which I think is a pretty good showing considering we've had some off-years as a conference. As for AU, we are definitely a good contender, with two NCAA appearances (10 points), 2 upsets (Maryland 2007 and DePaul 2009, 8 points), 2 regular season championships (8 points), and 2 20-win seasons (6 points). That's 32 points right there, which would alone tie us for 88th with Houston. However, while I don't have the data in front of me, our average RPI probably counts for a good bit as well (I know it's been as high as the low 70's in recent years), and we've probably led the conference in a number of statistical categories multiple times.
Of course, I doubt we'll be the only Patriot League team in this ranking. Holy Cross, Bucknell, and Lehigh all have chances of showing up, and possibly even higher than us. Bucknell's two NCAA wins will certainly put them ahead, and I believe Holy Cross has had 3 20-win seasons in this time span as well, plus an NIT victory over Notre Dame. Will they rank better than us? Possibly, and we'll soon find out. All of the data that TMM is using to calculate the rankings comes from Basketball State. My only criticism is that this is a pay site, but you can view up to 10 pages there a day for free, so if anyone wants to go in and try to figure out just how many points we, or anyone else has earned, then have at it. If speculation is more your thing, then make sure to vote in this week's Poll of the Week, which asks where you think AU will end up in the ranking. My vote goes to the 50-60 range.
Speaking of Polls, we also have results for last week's Poll of the Week, "What do you think of the 2010-2011 schedule?":
BEST ONE IN YEARS: 4 (14%)
Pretty Good: 10 (37%)
Alright: 8 (29%)
Terrible: 1 (3%)
2011 NCAA Champions: 4 (14%)
Total Votes: 27
I am inspired by the relentless optimism of our readers. Over 60% think it's at least "pretty good", while 4 predict our inevitable national championship (including, of course, myself).
In other Patriot League News, it looks like Navy has found a new assistant coach in former Duke guard Greg Paulus. Probably most well-known for his cross-sport enthusiasm, giving the position of football quarterback a try while a grad student at Syracuse, Paulus has "always wanted to get into coaching", according to Navy's press release. A member of Coach K's coaching tree is a great pickup, although how good of a coach he'll be will only be revealed with time. I'm sure a number of our readers will look forward to seeing him in Bender Arena this upcoming season. This writer certainly does.
AU Athletics has released some great stuff this week as well. Most prominent is a video interview with each and every head coach. Props to the effort that went into that, but of course I'm most interested in the interview with Coach Jones:
Ah, the ever-humble Jeff Jones. "I feel like there's a lot of reason to believe", he calmly says, "next season could be better than the last." Who could imagine that's the same red-faced man that devours the first-born child of a Holy Cross janitor before every game? In all seriousness, though, I think he's definitely downplaying just how much better we'll be this season, and I don't blame him. I'd rather catch our opponents by surprise, too. Plus, there's always the remote chance we completely implode, and if that happens at this this interview won't be embarrassing (I had my fingers crossed when I typed that, for the record). I do sincerely appreciate, however, his deference to the Blue Crew, "When Bender Arena is full, and really gets rocking, it is as good a home court advantage as there is in the country." With that statement, I wholeheartedly agree. Oh, and I happened to notice this fun image as well - can you spot Bill and Josh?
Let's play "Where's Waldo" with the AUHoops writers...
In addition to the slew of interviews, for anyone who's curious, athletics also released the 2009-2010 annual report this week. It's a good read, and really hammers home that even if we don't dominate in the win column, we're tops academically. On that topic, the NCAA released an interesting new tool this week that allows you to track the Academic Progress Rate of a team by head coach. While it's definitely an interesting tool, and definitely a step in the right direction, I was disappointed to learn that it does not track graduation success rates. The difference between the APR and graduation success rates is subtle, but important. The APR is annual, and accounts primarily for students placed on academic probation and those who transfer. The GSR, on the other hand, takes six years to generate and directly tracks how many student-athletes graduate with a degree. While the APR may be easier to keep track of, I think the GSR is a much better reflection of how seriously a coach takes academics. That notwithstanding, we do pretty darn well. Here's what Coach Jones' graph looks like:
The text is quite small, so just know that the dark blue column is our APR, and the light blue column is the average APR for all division one teams (in years 2003-04 on the far left to 2008-09 on the right).
Finally, I'd like to take just a moment to point out some of the new features on AUHoops this week as we continue to upgrade for Season 2. For those who check back often, you've probably noticed that the number of tabs in the menu bar at the top of the page continues to grow. In an attempt to unclutter the main page, the schedule has migrated from its former cramped quarters to its own page. The 2010-2011 schedule will go up as soon as firm dates are announced, which should be within the next two weeks if history serves as a guide. The 2009-2010 schedule won't be coming down, though, you'll be able to easily click between them if you need a refresher on past seasons. There's also a page for videos, as we try our hand at bringing you the best Eagles coverage we can in a variety of media. We like still pictures too, though, and on our main site you'll find some of our favorites that link to our fantastic new Flickr feed. The eye candy doesn't stop there, though, as you'll find a page for some sweet desktop wallpapers as well. We'll be adding to these sections as the season begins or events warrant.
Interested in helping us improve any of these things, or trying your hand at writing. I'm very pleased to announce that we are looking for contributors for this upcoming season. Whether writing, photography, videography, web design, or just telling bad jokes is your skill, shoot us an e-mail with your interest, and, if you please, a small sample of your work, whatever it may be. We'll then convene in a dark room, candles ablaze, huddled around a table under a painting of Derrick Mercer dunking over LeBron James. If we like what we see, then you can proudly tell your friends, family, and coworkers that you are officially part of the AUHoops team!
Phew, that was a lot for one post, but I owed it to you. Check back next week for our Monday Eagles Update, which finally looks like it will actually appear on Monday. Until then, stay classy, Eagles Nation!
Pro Deo Et Patria and GO EAGLES!
Josh
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